ESPN's NCAA Tournament analytics should have Duke fans dreaming of the title glory

Duke faces an arduous path back to the Final Four, and if the Blue Devils want to snap an 11-year national championship drought, they are going to have to earn it. Jon Scheyer probably wouldn't have it any other way, and his team certainly won't back down from a fight.

But the path will be rocky, and Duke will find itself in some tight games and will need to execute down the stretch to come away with wins. The East region is littered with landmines, with the likes of Kansas, St. John's, Michigan State, and UConn all more than capable of winning the Region and knocking the Blue Devils out of the NCAA Tournament.

Don't get it twisted, though: Duke is still the favorite, even without Caleb Foster, because the Blue Devils have been the best team in college basketball this season, and one of the best regular-season teams of the KenPom era (dates back to 1997).

That doesn't guarantee Duke will win it all, however, as the 1999 Blue Devils can attest to. That team is the best team of the KenPom era, but fell to UConn in the National Title Game. Scheyer will hope to avoid a similar fate and make good on Duke's standing as the favorite.

Per ESPN's analytics, Duke is the favorite, and by a significant margin. They give the Blue Devils a 23% chance of winning the national championship, a 7% gap between No. 2 Michigan at 16%. Arizona at 14% is the only other team with a >10% chance:

ESPN Analytics gives Duke a 23% chance of winning the national championship

23% feels a little high for the Blue Devils, if only considering the murderer's row of an East Region it faces to even make it back to the Final Four.

But it speaks to just how good this team has been all season long. Led by soon-to-be National Player of the Year Cameron Boozer, Duke dominated the regular season and enters the NCAA Tournament at 32-2 and with the ACC regular season and tournament titles in tow. Duke's two losses on the season came by a combined four points.

Duke's status as the favorite is well deserved. And while some elite teams and elite coaches will stand in their path to the Final Four, those teams will be staring up at Goliath and hoping a pebble will do the trick.