The Duke football program is heading into the 2025 season with high expectations after a very successful first season under head coach Manny Diaz, one in which the Blue Devils won nine games for just the third time since joining the ACC in 1953.
With new pressure amounting after a nine-win season mixed with key returning pieces and big-time additions through the transfer portal, an ACC Championship and College Football Playoff push seems in the cards for Duke football in 2025.
However, one analyst thinks it will be a tall task for the Blue Devils to improve upon their 2025 campaign.
ESPN college football analyst Greg McElroy analyzed the Blue Devils' win total for 2025 at over/under 7.5 wins, and is unsure whether Duke can realistically eclipse that mark.
"There are pieces to replace and there are things to figure out," McElroy said on Always College Football with Greg McElroy. "Their win total isn't too bad, they can certainly get there. But, it'll be very, very difficult I think when looking at the entire picture. Elon, UConn, Virginia, and Wake Forest are the four that absolutely have to be won. If they're going to eclipse their win total and get anywhere near matching where they were last year, they have to win those four games."
McElroy also said the Blue Devils' schedule is littered with toss-ups. He only sees two losses on the slate as of now, against Illinois and at Clemson. Besides those two contests, every other matchup can go either way in McElroy's eyes.
The September 6th game, when Duke hosts the Fighting Illini, has legitimate potential to decide the ceiling of the entire 2025 season for Diaz and his group. Illinois is seen as a top-ten program per On3's "Way-Too-Early" top 25 rankings, and will be expected to take down a pesky Duke team even on the road.
If the Blue Devils can squeeze out a statement win at home over potentially the best team in the Big 10, especially in week two of the college football season, that sets Duke up for legitimate College Football Playoff aspirations.
Obviously, that means the Blue Devils will have to go on to win the rest of their games they're "supposed" to win. But as the offseason moves further, that date with the Fighting Illini looks more and more like it will pay dividends towards how far Duke football can go in 2025.