Duke has gotten off to a better start than pretty much anyone expected. The Blue Devils are a Darian Mensah-less 3-0, beating two opponents it lost to last season (Tulane, Illinois), along with earning its first ACC win last week against Stanford.
Duke's passing offense is still a work in progress, but they've got a dominant run game led by the NCAA's leading rusher, Nate Sheppard, and a much-improved defense that looks leaps and bounds improved from where it was a season ago.
Duke will face FCS opponent William & Mary at home this afternoon as they look to improve to 4-0 and work out a few offensive kinks before the long ACC stretch begins. Duke has a well-placed bye week after this matchup, so Manny Diaz can stand to get some extra work in with his starters even if this game gets out of hand quickly.
Sheppard will likely get his early as the Blue Devils continue his Heisman Trophy push, but this game should be all about Walker Eget getting more comfortable with his receivers. As dominant as Sheppard has been, Duke needs more out of the forward pass in order to be a contender in getting to Charlotte for the ACC Championship.
Betting odds for Duke vs. William & Mary in Week 4
Odds courtesy of FanDuel as of 6am ET on Saturday.
Spread: Duke -43.5
Over/Under: 62.5
Moneyline: Duke (off board)/William & Mary +8000
Final Prediction:
This is a name-your-score week for Duke. This will be a significant mismatch at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball. Duke will physically overwhelm William & Mary when it has the ball, and then blow up everything on the defensive end.
I expect Diaz to try to get Sheppard a 100+ yard day as quickly as possible, and then wrap him in bubble wrap and escort him back to his dorm room. There's no reason to risk any kind of injury with the meal ticket.
Eget getting extended opportunities to throw the ball down the field and connect with Duke's receivers should be the game plan this week. This should also be the week when Dan Mahan gets some extended run in the second half leading the offense instead of in the change-of-pace formations we've seen from him the first few weeks.
Duke wins. Big.
Pick: Duke 48, William & Mary 7
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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