Duke has a massive roadblock in its path back to the Final Four with Hall-of-Fame head coach Rick Pitino and his red-hot St. John's squad. The Johnnies have won eight consecutive games and 21 of their last 22 heading into Friday night's Sweet 16 matchup.
After a shaky start to the NCAA Tournament that included a double-digit halftime deficit to 16-seeded Siena, Duke found its groove in the second-half against TCU, thanks to a big performance by Cameron Boozer, reinstalling itself in the mix for the National Championship.
St. John's had a dominant performance against Northern Iowa to open March Madness before escaping with a win over Kansas thanks to a buzzer-beating layup.
The Blue Devils could get some unexpected reinforcements for the matchup, however, with junior point guard Caleb Foster officially being listed as "questionable" for the game. Jon Scheyer said Forster would be a game-time decision.
Foster's return, even in limited minutes, could be pivotal for Duke against a pesky St. John's defense that will put a ton of pressure on the Blue Devils ball-handlers.
Final odds and a prediction for Duke vs. St. John's in the Sweet 16
- Spread: Duke -6.5
- Moneyline: Duke -275; St. John's +220
- Point total (over/under): 141.5
Odds are from FanDuel Sportsbook and are liable to change at anytime.
This line has held steady all week. Duke opened as a 6.5-point favorite and has remained there throughout the week.
The spread seems correct, at least according to the analytics. KenPom favors Duke by seven points, projecting a 75-68 Duke win and giving the Blue Devils a 75% implied chance of victory.
Bart Torvik fancies a closer game, projecting a 74-69 win for Duke, producing a 70% implied chance of a Blue Devils victory.
Final Prediction for 1-seed Duke vs. 5-seed St. John's
St. John's is scrappy, and they are going to turn this Sweet 16 game into a rock fight. It will be imperative that Scheyer has his team ready to handle the constant pressure from the Red Storm.
Pitino will devise a defensive gameplan that revolves around getting the ball out of Cameron Boozer's hands and forcing him into contested passes. Boozer, the National Player of the Year favorite, has struggled with turnovers in the NCAA Tournament, giving it away five times in each of Duke's first two games.
If St. John's can create some chaos, and it can knock down a higher-percentage of three-pointers than Duke, there's a path to an upset here.
But Duke has been one of the best defensive teams in the country this year, and against a St. John's team that has had numerous cold spells on the offensive end, I'll put my faith in the Duke defense winning that matchup enough that the Blue Devils advance to the Elite Eight.
Pick: Duke 68, St. John's 63
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.