Week 1 for Duke revealed the answer to a major offseason question. The Blue Devils look seriously improved on the defensive side of the ball, which is exactly what Manny Diaz was hoping for.
Unfortunately, it also brought a reality that fans hoped to ignore for as long as possible: Duke took a major downgrade at QB. While Darian Mensah has gotten off to a start that has Heisman Trophy attention, Walker Eget struggled mightily in his first start with the Blue Devils, so much so that there was a legitimate question in the aftermath of the Tulane win of whether or not Diaz needed to make an immediate change.
This week at Illinois, don't be surprised to see Dan Mahan get a little more burn as a change of pace for Duke with his running ability. Illinois will try to key in on superstar RB Nate Sheppard, and Diaz and OC Jonathan Brewer will need to find a changeup to keep the Illini's defense honest.
After scoring revenge on Tulane last week for last season's loss to the Green Wave, Diaz and company hope to make it a perfect two-for-two on revenge matchups to open the 2026 season.
Betting odds for Duke at Illinois in Blue Devils' first road test
Odds courtesy of FanDuel as of 6am ET on Saturday.
Spread: Duke +5.5
Over/Under: 51.5
Moneyline: Duke +190/Illinois -235
Final prediction
We've been tipping our hands throughout the week on this pick. I really think Duke is primed for an upset of Illinois. Maybe that's foolish considering the anemic passing offense last week, but the Illini looked beatable in last week's win over UAB.
In particular, UAB found success on the ground against Illinois, something Sheppard and Duke should be able to replicate. Couple that with the fact that Katin Houser has struggled in his career against P4 competition, and Duke has a real shot at getting a massive road victory over a Big Ten opponent in Week 2.
I expect it to look like a lot of Duke games will have to look this season: ugly. But there's nothing ugly about winning on the road, especially against a team that hammered you on your own home field just a year ago.
Duke puts the nation on notice in Week 2 with a big-time road win over Illinois, cementing itself as an upper-echelon team in the ACC.
Pick: Duke 20, Illinois 13
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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