National expectations for Duke in Manny Diaz's third season are pretty low despite the fact that the Blue Devils are the defending ACC champions and have won nine games in each of Diaz's first two years as the head coach.
The offseason departure of star QB Darian Mensah is the impetus for the lowered expectations, but there's some confidence internally that Duke is going to field another good football team this season. The offense will look different with either Walker Eget or Dan Mahan at QB, but the Blue Devils should have one of the top rushing offenses in the conference with a veteran-laden offensive line and a star at RB in Nate Sheppard.
How far this team can go might depend on whether Diaz can find a fix for a leaky defense, which finished near the bottom of the ACC last season. The Duke offense may not have the same firepower to cover for the same amount of defensive shortcomings.
With the season less than two weeks away, preseason bowl and playoff projections are becoming commonplace. Where Duke is projected shows the tempered expectations nationally.
Duke's bowl projections point to an uneven year for Manny Diaz
Here's the postseason breakdown for Duke from ESPN, CBS, and On3:
ESPN:
Mark Schlabach: Birmingham Bowl vs. Auburn
Kyle Bonagura: Gasparilla Bowl vs. Wisconsin
CBS Sports:
First Responder Bowl vs. North Texas
On3:
Not selected.
On3's Brett McMurphy is the biggest pessimist of the group, predicting that Duke isn't going to make a bowl game. That would be the first time since 2021 the Blue Devils missed a bowl game, if McMurphy's projection proves accurate. It would also be the first time since 2021 that Duke failed to win at least eight games.
That feels a bit severe just because of the loss of Mensah. This is still a talented roster that has frequently outperformed expectations over the last few seasons.
ESPN's projections would at least produce a couple of fun matchups against Power Four opponents. The Birmingham Bowl against an SEC opponent in Auburn would offer some intrigue. That would be the first matchup between those two programs on the gridiron since 1980.
The matchup against Wisconsin would be the second ever meeting between the Blue Devils and the Badgers. The only previous meeting was the 1995 Hall of Fame Bowl, a 34-20 win for Wisconsin.
A matchup against North Texas would be the first ever meeting between those two schools in football.
Duke opens the regular season on September 5th at home against Tulane in a game that has the chance to flip the narrative surroudning this team right away.
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