Florida may be the favorite to open the season as the preseason No. 1 team, but Duke stands on equal footing with the Gators. They have dead-even odds in the national title race, and now Jon Scheyer and company have actually surpassed the Gators in a key preseason metric.
Joe Lunardi updated his preseason bracketology on Tuesday, and the Blue Devils jumped ahead of Florida as the new No. 1 overall seed, a distinction Todd Golden's Gators held in the last update.
Lunardi notes that it's because of the treacherous schedule awaiting Duke this season, which could give the Blue Devils the upper hand in key resume metrics when the committee sits down to place teams for March Madness.
"While Florida remains an overwhelming choice to begin the campaign as the nation's top-ranked team, the Gators no longer have the inside track to the NCAA tournament's No. 1 overall seed," Lunardi writes. "The release of conference pairings and nonconference schedules shifts that distinction to Duke, which plays seven games against the top 10 teams on our seed list, including a visit to Gainesville on Dec. 1. Duke's projected résumé is a tick ahead of Florida's at this point."
Duke's brutal schedule could give it a leg up when it comes time for the NCAA Tournament
Duke will be battle-tested this season. Scheyer put together one of the most challenging non-conference schedules in the country, featuring games against Florida, Illinois, UConn, Michigan State, Gonzaga, Texas Tech, and Georgia. That's before you even get into a much-improved ACC, featuring teams like Louisville, Virginia, and Miami who could really give Duke a run for its money in its quest for a third-straight conference title.
Per Lunardi's bracket, Duke is projected to play 15 games against projected NCAA Tournament teams:
- 1-seed Florida
- 1-seed Illinois
- 2-seed Michigan State
- 2-seed Louisville
- 3-seed UConn
- 3-seed Virginia (x2)
- 4-seed Gonzaga
- 5-seed Texas Tech
- 7-seed Miami
- 8-seed North Carolina (x2)
- 8-seed Georgia
- 10-seed Clemson
- 11-seed NC State
Talk about a murderer's row of a schedule. Duke faces two projected 1-seeds in Florida and Illinois, two projected 2-seeds in Michigan State and Louisville, two projected 3-seeds in UConn and Virginia (twice), a 4-seed in Gonzaga, and a 5-seed in Texas Tech.
Brutal.
That schedule is going to hold up come tournament time. While Scheyer did excellent work crafting a challenging non-conference slate for the Blue Devils, it's the improvement in the ACC that should be the most beneficial for Duke heading into the postseason.
Louisville and Virginia are legitimate contenders in the league, and Jai Lucas and Miami feel a bit underrated after some impressive recruiting and portal signings.
Despite a loaded roster, running through the regular season with only two or three losses like they have the last two seasons might not be realistic. It also might not impact their chances of earning the No. 1 overall seed in the Big Dance, either.
Duke will have some margin for error with its schedule, and that could be important when the committee is making decisions on seeding and placements.
Add us as a preferred source on Google