An old adage in sports goes that things aren't nearly as bad or as good as you think. After Week 1, Duke has some major positives and at least one potentially crippling negative.
The important part is that the Blue Devils are 1-0. They earned a 17-3 win over Tulane to open the season, but the schedule immediately gets more difficult. Manny Diaz will take Duke on the road to face the Big Ten's Illinois in Week 2, looking to avenge a non-conference loss from last season for the second week in a row.
One of the biggest positive takeaways from Week 1 was how dominant Duke was at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball. The Blue Devils racked up 250 yards on the ground, led by the unstoppable Nate Sheppard, while holding Tulane to just 54 yards on 26 attempts.
It's hard to tell after one week whether that says more about Duke or Tulane. We'll find out this weekend in Champaign.
Bret Bielema has built his Illinois program at the line of scrimmage. They are frequently one of the most physical teams in the country, something that Duke will have to match to have a chance at pulling off a mini road upset.
Diaz knows that this week will tell the tale.
"I think the league (Big Ten)- it's not the three yards and a cloud of dust league like it once was," Diaz said, via Duke Wire. "However, it's still the land of large humans, and the game still comes down to winning the line of scrimmage, like I said, how we did against Tulane last week."
Duke winning the line of scrimmage will be vital in Week 2 at Illinois
Illinois didn't physically overwhelm Duke in Durham last season. The Blue Devils' biggest issues were defending the play-action pass and turnovers on offense. Duke gave the ball away five times and allowed Illini QB Luke Altmyer to rack up 296 passing yards.
ECU transfer Katin Houser is just as capable of making Duke's secondary pay. After one week, it looks like the talk of improvement defensively during fall camp was prophetic. But this will be a bigger test.
Duke will have to find more success running the ball than they did a season ago. Last year, Illinois held Duke to just 82 yards on 24 attempts. With as much as Walker Eget struggled in Week 1, if the Blue Devils can't run the ball better than they did last year against Illinois, then it'll be difficult to keep this game competitive.
One thing working in Diaz's favor is that when Duke played Illinois last year, he hadn't yet figured out that Sheppard was the best RB on the roster. There's no ambiguity about that in 2026. Sheppard will be the bellcow, and Duke will continue hammering the ball on the ground in hopes that they can lean on Illinois in the second half.
But Eget and the passing offense have to take a step forward this week, something Diaz is confident will happen.
"I mean, these are guys who've been playing together now for three and a half, four weeks basically, and even Walker and his ability to be fully cleared for participation," Diaz said. "So it would only stand to reason that they'll improve as the year goes on."
For Duke, that improvement needs to start this week to have a legitimate shot at winning on the road against a quality opponent.
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