Football season is right around the corner, and the reigning ACC champion Duke Blue Devils are in the midst of fall camp as they prepare for the season opener against Tulane on September 5th.
National expectations are lower for Duke this season after Darian Mensah's transfer to Miami, but Duke has plenty of motivation to prove the doubters wrong. They're undergoing a fundamental change on offense, shifting their identity from QB-focused to a power-run game.
Diaz hopes that either Walker Eget or Dan Mahan will be able to effectively manage the game, but the Blue Devils' main focus on offense will be pounding the rock with a veteran offensive line and an elite running back in Nate Sheppard.
Bill Connelly released his preseason SP+ rankings on Thursday. Duke came in at No. 45 in the rankings. The rankings revealed a major concern that Diaz needs to sort through to ensure the Blue Devils are able to compete in the ACC this season.
Duke's preseason SP+ ranking sparks one major concern for Manny Diaz
45th might feel low, but that's right around where Duke finished last season. Even after winning nine games and capturing the ACC Championship, the Blue Devils finished 44th in SP+.
The biggest problem for Duke last season was the defense. They finished No. 86 in defense SP+ a year ago, and the projection for this season isn't much kinder, with Connelly's algorithm predicting Diaz and company to move up six spots to No. 80 on that side of the ball.
That won't be good enough.
Duke offset a porous defense with a Top 20 offense last season. Connelly projects the offense to be Top 20 again next season, which might be wishful thinking. If the QB play takes a step backward as expected with either Eget or Mahan, it's going to be tough to remain in that Top 20 range, even if Sheppard and the ground game are really good.
The focus has to be on getting better on defense this year. Duke can't afford another season with a defense like last year, but it's going to be an uphill battle for improvement.
The Blue Devils are replacing their two starting defensive ends, both of whom are on NFL rosters now. There's talent up front, albeit unproven.
The biggest question mark is in the secondary. Duke had one of the worst pass defenses in college football last season, and improvement is necessary on the back end. Duke actually returns three starters from last season's secondary, but Diaz stated earlier in fall camp that no jobs had been decided back there yet.
Along with the returning starters, Duke brought in a lot of competition in the Transfer Portal by landing Che Ojarikre (Stanford), Patrick Smith-Young (North Texas), Dylan Flowers (Western Kentucky), Kyon Loud (Montana), and Evan Smith (Northwestern).
If Duke can take a leap forward defensively - even somewhere in the Top 50ish range - it would help offset a likely drop-off on offense. If the defense stays the same or worse, however, Diaz and the Blue Devils may be fighting for bowl eligibility.
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