While surviving and advancing is all that truly matters during March Madness, a near miss vs. a 16-seed is not the start Duke wanted, and historically, it is likely a massive warning sign that the Blue Devils might finish short of a national championship for an 11th straight season.
No. 1 overall Duke found itself down 11 points at halftime against the 16-seeded Saints, but rallied in the final 20 minutes to win 71-65 and escape a monumental upset.
History tells us, however, that Duke's opening round struggles against a 16-seed probably mean it won't be cutting down the nets.
Per Basket Review's Will Warren, Duke became the 16th 1-seed in NCAA Tournament history to beat a 16-seed by single digits. None of the previous 15 won the national title:
Duke becomes the 16th 1 seed to defeat a 16 by 9 or fewer points. The previous 15: 0-for-15 in going on to win the national title. (Three Final Four teams, though, including 1986 Duke.) pic.twitter.com/RPAWqLOHYC
— Will Warren (@statsbywill) March 19, 2026
Duke's close win over Siena might have already cost the Blue Devils the national title
Of course, there are extenuating circumstances for Duke playing Siena closer than anyone expected. The Blue Devils were once again playing without sophomore center Patrick Ngongba, who is a massive difference maker in Jon Scheyer's lineup.
The cracks in the foundation are much more noticeable without Ngongba anchoring the middle, particularly on the defensive end of the floor. Scheyer made a calculated gamble to leave Ngongba on the bench, figuring Siena wouldn't be much competition and he could steal a couple of days of extra rest for his big man. It nearly blew up in his face.
Duke will need Ngongba back as soon as possible. That means Saturday against TCU, which is absolutely good enough to knock Duke out of the tournament if the Blue Devils play as poorly as they did on Thursday.
While history tells us that Duke's close win over Siena probably means it won't win the national title, at least three of those teams rebounded well enough to make the Final Four, including the 1986 Blue Devils.
And, well, history is made to be broken.