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Duke's biggest threat in ACC play next season is only one late transfer addition away

It is early in the offseason, but Jon Scheyer must recognize this ACC foe as a real threat to Duke.
Jon Scheyer, Duke Blue Devils
Jon Scheyer, Duke Blue Devils | Jim Dedmon-Imagn Images

Duke may not play the easiest ACC schedule next year, but it could get even harder if one player decides to commit to another contending team in-conference. That would be former Iowa State star Milan Momcilovic. While he is narrowing down his list of teams of where he may play next season after withdrawing from the 2026 NBA Draft, Duke fans are not going to like seeing him commit to Louisville.

Here is how ESPN's Jeff Borzello sees men's college basketball in his latest way-too-early rankings.

  1. Florida Gators
  2. Duke Blue Devils
  3. Michigan Wolverines
  4. Illinois Fighting Illini
  5. UConn Huskies
  6. Tennessee Volunteers
  7. St. John's Red Storm
  8. Michigan State Spartans
  9. Texas Longhorns
  10. Arizona Wildcats
  11. Arkansas Razorbacks
  12. USC Trojans
  13. Louisville Cardinals
  14. Virginia Cavaliers
  15. Alabama Crimson Tide
  16. Houston Cougars
  17. Gonzaga Bulldogs
  18. Vanderbilt Commodores
  19. Miami Hurricanes
  20. Missouri Tigers
  21. Nebraska Cornhuskers
  22. Kansas Jayhawks
  23. Iowa State Cyclones
  24. Purdue Boilermakers
  25. North Carolina Tar Heels

For a bit more context, here are the five teams that just missed the cut of cracking his latest top 25...

  • Saint Louis Billikens
  • Indiana Hoosiers
  • UCLA Bruins
  • BYU Cougars
  • Texas A&M Aggies

While the notion of Momcilovic committing to Louisville is not anything new, the fact it was a primary focal point in Borzello discussing how his future rankings could change is a huge deal. He believes that if Louisville were to secure Momcilovic's commitment that the Cardinals would go from No. 13 to comfortably inside the top 10. Right now, he is deciding between Arizona, Kentucky, and Louisville.

Only 11 spots separate league favorite Duke (No. 2) from its biggest challenger in Louisville (No. 13)...

Milan Momcilovic to Louisville is not what Duke fans should be hoping for

Borzello not only said Louisville would be a top-10 team with the addition of Momcilovic, but his arrival would certainly improve Arizona and Kentucky's standings in these rankings. UK would be a top-25 team, while U of A would be right up there with Duke and Florida among the favorites to win it all. While the expectations are sky-high for Momcilovic, Duke fans need him to be going to Lexington.

In the event that Momcilovic commits to Louisville, Pat Kelsey's team becomes easily the most formidable challenger to Jon Scheyer's Blue Devils in ACC. Duke also has to play North Carolina and Virginia twice on the schedule. Duke will have to play Louisville on the road. Miami is not going away under former Scheyer disciple Jai Lucas either... Duke fans are hoping for one of the three outcomes.

Read more: ESPN just handed Cameron Boozer believers fresh ammunition in No. 1 pick debate

If Momcilovic commits to Kentucky, the Wildcats will be much better under Mark Pope, but they are still not a viable threat to win it all next season. Arizona already is a serious contender to win a national championship. If Tommy Lloyd lands him, that could throw a big wrench into Duke's plans for cutting down the nets. Even more concerning, Momcilovic going to Louisville will make ACC play even harder.

Ultimately, Scheyer and his staff cannot overlook the momentum Kelsey's program is building under his guidance. Louisville may be a traditional power on the hardwood, but it is easy for a team with so many enemies like Duke to unfortunately overlook them. Again, this could all be a moot point if Momcilovic commits elsewhere, but him going to Louisville would make the ACC even more difficult.

For now, Duke should be focused on the main thing, while occasionally looking over its shoulder...

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