The Duke Blue Devils (31-3, 19-1 ACC) are the team to beat in the East Region, earning that part of the bracket's #1 seed. Fans around college basketball are high on the Blue Devils entering the NCAA Tournament, as Duke is the most popular pick to win the national championship among fans' brackets around the country.
And although Duke will likely be favored in any game it plays before the Final Four, there's still some tough squads that the Blue Devils could potentially face on their way to San Antonio. And if this team got upset early before Duke would meet it in the Sweet Sixteen, it would make Duke's path a lot more smooth: the Arizona Wildcats.
Although Arizona is the 4-seed in the East, the Wildcats became essentially a different team after conference play began.
Duke has already played Arizona at McKale Center back in November and won 69-55. After the Wildcats' loss to Duke, things started to go south and the season looked like it could potentially be a bust. Arizona went on to lose three of its next four games after its loss to Duke, making its record on the season 4-5. But after that stretch and through Big 12 play, Arizona transformed into a new team.
After the 4-5 start, the Wildcats then went on a seven-game win streak and propelled through Big 12 play, finishing fourth in the conference standings with a 14-6 record in the Big 12.
The Wildcats hold wins over teams such as Kansas, Texas Tech, and BYU, and are one of the best offenses in the country.
Arizona is 12th nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency, 19th in offensive rebounding percentage, and plays at one of the fastest paces in the nation. The squad ended the regular season and Big 12 Tournament winning two straight games before falling 72-64 to Houston in the Big 12 championship game.
Now, why the 4-seed might be the best upset case scenario for Duke is because Arizona might be the second-best team in the East despite being slotted as a 4-seed.
The 2-seed in the East, Alabama, might be the best offensive team in the nation when healthy. The thing is, the team isn't healthy. Grant Nelson's injury concerns have risen lately and his health through the NCAA Tournament is unclear. If Nelson isn't playing or isn't fully healthy, the Crimson Tide are a completely different team.
The 3-seeded Wisconsin Badgers are possibly in the best offensive season they've ever had with Greg Gard, but the Badgers play much more to Duke's strengths with their slow pace and their high three-point shooting rate that isn't all that efficient at times.
In addition to that, although Duke is better than Arizona, it's really difficult to beat a team twice, especially when it's a significantly better squad than the one Duke faced back in November.
Caleb Love has been on a tear as of late, averaging 18.8 points per game over his last five on 45.5% shooting from the field. This Wildcats team is dangerous and could pose problems for Duke in the Sweet Sixteen.
If Cooper Flagg is healthy coming into the second weekend if Duke makes it there, it will be the better team and should be able to take down Arizona. But seeing the Wildcats get bounced in the first weekend is the best upset case scenario for the Blue Devils.