Duke basketball is heavily favored to win the ACC regular season title with +110 odds. The next team in line is North Carolina at +350 then drops all the way to +1000 for Wake Forest.
The ACC expanded to an eighteen-team league, but isn't expected to be one of the top power conferences in the sport to most analysts. I think there are several teams that can vastly exceed expectations in the conference, but there's one squad that will be brought up today that could be a sleeper contender in the conference and give Duke a tough time when the two teams face off: the Louisville Cardinals.
Louisville was picked ninth in the ACC preseason poll after a complete overhaul of the team from top to bottom. Head coach Kenny Payne was let go after a 12-52 record in two seasons, and the Cardinals brought in former Charleston coach Pat Kelsey. Louisville also brought in thirteen new transfers.
I was high on Louisville in the preseason to be a sleeper team, but after its opening night game, it seems like the Pat Kelsey era might be real.
The Cardinals took down Morehead State on Monday night 93-45, shooting 45% from the field as a team.
Offensively, they play a similar way to Duke. They take a ton of threes (went 11-36 against Morehead State) but also have guys that can control the paint. Louisville had 42 points in the paint on Monday night.
Kelsey's formula as a coach is to play up-tempo and get shots up quickly, and I see a lot of that same scheme in this Duke team in 2024-25.
Louisville also got in transition and took advantage of it like Duke did against Maine. Louisville had eighteen fast break points and forced twenty Morehead State turnovers.
There's a few other squads in the ACC that also play similarly to Duke, but I don't think Louisville is getting talked about enough as a potential threat in the conference. Admittedly, it's tough to put them on that pedestal after the abysmal two years the team went through in the Kenny Payne era.
It also makes sense why Louisville isn't considered a true contender. It hasn't been proven yet in college basketball that a first-year head coach can take a team compiled entirely of new faces and make it to the NCAA Tournament. I just really like some of the guys this Louisville team has.
Chucky Hepburn came over to run the point for the Cardinals after three great years at Wisconsin, and they've got a scoring threat at the two with Terrence Edwards Jr., who averaged seventeen points a game at James Madison a season ago.
It's definitely going to be a guard-dominant team, but it's a team a lot like Pat Kelsey's at Charleston. Move the ball up the court quick and get a shot off.
Duke only faces Louisville once this season on the road on December 8th, but the Cardinals are a team I think fans should keep an eye on in the ACC.