College Football Playoff chances might be alive for Duke football

Duke football has never made a College Football Playoff, and Blue Devil fans never really have that thought in their minds with how difficult it's always been to get in with the CFP's four-team setting.

But, as the new playoff format now invites twelve teams, more mid-majors have the ability to make it and the new format also rewards conference champions.

The new CFP format has the five conference champions as the top five seeds in an order decided by the CFP committee. The rest of the seedings go to the teams ranked 6-12 in the final standings.

Duke opened the season with about an 8% chance to make the CFP according to ESPN FPI and sits with the same odds today. So, is there a realistic path for the Blue Devils to sneak in?

It's slim, let's not get ahead of ourselves. But I think there is a somewhat feasible way Duke fans could see their team in the CFP for the first time ever, and in Manny Diaz's rookie year in Durham.

This entire conversation could be over by the end of Saturday, or it could continue. Duke faces its first ranked opponent of the season on Saturday in #22 SMU who is 6-1 overall and 3-0 in the ACC.

Sportsbooks have the Blue Devils as 11.5-point underdogs at home with a scary +340 moneyline to win outright. Although, SMU is an opponent that could fall right into Duke's lap. The Mustangs relies on their offense that scores about 40 points a game, and Duke has one of the best defenses in the country. If the Blue Devils can shut down the Mustangs' scoring and finally have a consistent night offensively, a home victory is possible.

So what happens if Duke beats SMU on Saturday? Needless to say, all of this is irrelevant with a loss. But with a victory, Duke will almost certainly move into the Associated Press Poll for the first time since 1994, potentially inside the top twenty. The Mustangs currently have about a 20% chance to get into the playoff, so if Duke can knock them off at home, that should boost the Blue Devils' odds to around 15%-20%.

This is just the first step, though. Next week, Duke will head to Coral Gables to take on #6 Miami for what could be quite a turning point in Duke's season.

Say Duke is riding high after a home win this weekend against SMU, it then faces a whole different monster in the Hurricanes. But, they have similar makeup to SMU.

Miami is possibly the best offensive team in the entire country, but they've had some close calls to some not-so-strong opponents.

Over the last three weeks, Miami came back to beat Virginia Tech at home 38-34, then somehow found a way to another miraculous comeback to take down California 39-38, and survived a one-score affair against Louisville last week, winning by a score of 52-45.

Let's assume Duke finds what works on offense and it's defense continues to be one of the best in the nation. Doesn't Miami stack up pretty similarly to SMU? Scores a ton of points and gives up a ton of points.

It's two matchups in a row that Duke can rationally win, and if the Blue Devils knock off the #22 team and #6 team on the road in back to back weeks, is it fair to say they'll be in the top twelve?

I'm not sure if that'll do it, and the road isn't over even if Duke can snag these two massive wins. The program would still have to win out over its last three games against NC State, Virginia Tech, and Wake Forest. Two of those games are on the road too.

But, if Duke can win out, it will more likely than not be playing in the ACC Championship, which might be good enough by itself to make the playoff. And obviously if Duke wins the ACC Championship, it guarantees them a ticket to the big dance.

Let's not get out of hand. With everything that has to go right for Duke over the next six weeks, especially with the inconsistences the squad has dealt with on the offensive side of the ball, it's easier said than done. But, I think it's realistic to say there's a rational path for Duke football to be competing in the CFP this season.