Biggest keys for Duke football to take down Florida State

Duke football looks to gain bowl elegibility with its sixth win of the season tonight, and the 1-5 Florida State Seminoles stand in its way. It's been a complete letdown of a season for Florida State which was ranked #10 in the preseason Associated Press poll, but this contest feels like the biggest game of the season for the Blue Devils coming off of a loss and the bye week.

Head coach Manny Diaz talked in his press conference earlier in the week that it feels like there's a new spark of energy in the locker room after the time off, and the Blue Devils will come out hungry tonight searching for a bounce-back victory at home.

Here are the keys to victory for the Blue Devils tonight.

1. Win the run

Florida State is allowing the most rushing yards per game of any team in the ACC at 182.3. For the first time in Duke's first loss of the season against Georgia Tech two weeks ago, the run was completely taken away from the Blue Devils' offensive scheme against the Yellow Jackets' stellar rush defense. Although Duke has shown the ability to run the ball effectively at times, this is statistically the worst run attack the Seminoles have faced so far this season. Star Thomas had established himself as the lead back in the backfield for the Blue Devils, rushing for over a hundred yards in each of the previous three games before being held to just 48 against Georgia Tech. The Seminoles have a talented defensive line who have now been battle-tested against three of the top five rush attacks in the conference in SMU, Clemson, and Georgia Tech. When the Blue Devils have established a consistent run scheme in games, it's opened up the field so much more for quarterback Maalik Murphy to take deep shots downfield.

2. Pressure the quarterback

Duke's outstanding defense has led the way for the Blue Devils's success so far through the 2024 campaign, allowing the fewest points per game and fewest passing yards per game to its opponents of all ACC teams. FSU starting quarterback DJ Uiagalelei went down with an injury to his throwing hand earlier this month and is missing his second straight game tonight, paving the way for freshman Brock Glenn to start. The Blue Devils like to blitz often and have put pressure on the quarterback to get the ball out of his hands quickly in each contest this season. The Seminoles haven't been a team that has gotten in the end zone easily this season, averaging an ACC-worst 14.8 points scored per game. The Blue Devils haven't put up ridiculous numbers in the scoring column, but are holding opponents to just 17.5 points scored per game. A freshman signal caller making his second start leaves Duke with an opportunity to really shut the opposing offense down, which has come in handy before when the Blue Devils' offense has struggled to put points on the board themselves.

3. Win third down

Duke and Florida State are the bottom two ACC teams in terms of third-down conversion percentages at about 29% each. This matchup looks the part of a defensive battle the entire way, and the betting markets agree with the total points over/under tonight sitting at just 42.5. One of the main reasons for Duke's inability to convert on third down is its predictability as it passes just about every time. Part of these woes come from when a run attack isn't set in place and it leaves Duke in a lot of third-and-uncomfortable situations where it has to pass. Murphy struggled against the blitz against the Yellow Jackets when he had to get the ball out of his hands quickly, and this was the first game where Murphy looked out of sync in the pocket with how little time he had to throw the ball. Keeping drives moving and putting points on the board early, especially against a Seminoles group that really struggles to get in the end zone, could give Duke a lot of breathing room later in the game if it's able to get a comfortable lead going in the first half.

In a game that feels like a must-win against a Florida State squad that is already 1-4 in conference play, these keys for Duke are similar than in weeks past but have been the formula for success all season.