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#7 Duke vs. Army: betting analysis & expert advice

Hope you gave our debut article a read, because the Duke team total was a nice little winner to open the season. Now the Cameron Crazies get round two, welcoming the Army Knights to town.

By Kenneth Cotterill

Tyrese Proctor
Tyrese Proctor / Lance King/GettyImages
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Duke Blue Devils basketball opened up the 2024-25 season with an impressive 96-62 win over lowly Maine. Cooper Flagg was as advertised, dominating the game on both ends of the floor. Kon Knueppel shot the ball incredibly well and with confidence. Khaman Malauch, the highly-touted freshman center, was a force down low with three blocks. But most importantly, they covered the 83.5 team total expert pick that we gave you guys. Next up for Duke is a matchup with Army on Friday night, once again at home. So what are some historical statistics to look at, and what is our best bet for the game?

Army & Duke Historical Data

If we are talking about this year's Army team, they come in undefeated after beating Albany by eight at home. That game was nearly a pick 'em, so the fact they won outright by eight is a great start to their season. But if you are talking about the 2023-24 Knights team, they were subpar in the covering department. They went 13-15-1 overall, but their road ATS record was their strength, with a 9-6 record overall. This was largely due to the play of Josh Scovens, who was a 22-point per game scorer for them.

Duke last season was one of the most profitable squads against the spread in the country. They finished with a 21-14-1 record ATS, which is massive. What was even more impressive was their ability to cover at home, as they were 11-7 on the year, or a 61% success rate. They are heavy favorites once again in this spot, much like they were against Maine.

There have also been three previous matchups between these two programs in the last decade, the last being in 2021. That was the Jalen Johnson and Trevor Keels Duke team, which was one of the worst in the Coach K era. They won that game 82-56 as a 26-point favorite, so they pushed on that occasion. The other matchups in 2014 and 2018, Duke won by 20 or more points but failed to cover on both occasions.

Our Expert Advice For Duke vs. Maine

We are going to remain impartial with our bets, so there will be times that we pick our opponents to cover. This. however, is not one of these spots. If you do a real deep dive into Patriot League basketball, this Army team is not one to back. They have the third worst odds to win the conference, only ahead of Loyola Maryland and Holy Cross. Beating Albany is not a win to hang your hat on and this is just a tough test for them in Durham. But while I said I would not take Army to cover the spread, I do struggle with the idea of Duke going in and winning by 33+ points right before Veterans Day.

I think if you are betting this game, you bet the first half total at over 67.5 at -115. Assume that Duke comes out, they start strong and then they let their foot off the gas later in the game. You will see flashes of brilliance from Flagg and maybe a few other Duke players, but beating down Army is not the end goal. The end goal is a national championship in April. So take the first half total, hope they put this game to bed early and enjoy the action.

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