Duke vs. Georgia Tech Historical Data
There is plenty of historical data for this ACC matchup. Since 1973, we have seen this matchup on 91 occasions. Duke has won on 69 of those occasions, but their home and away record against the Yellow Jackets is quite interesting. We know the power of the Cameron Crazies, and in this matchup they have helped lead Duke to a 36-4 home record. When the Blue Devils go on the road though, yes they win the majority of those games. But they also lose a lot more. Duke is just 25-15 on the road against the Yellow Jackets, even losing many of those games as a heavy favorite.
But let’s look at some more recent historical data for these programs, namely the last ten matchups. Duke has not had a big issue winning outright, winning eight of those ten games. But they rarely cover, doing so in just four of those games. Now I think last year's Duke team would look back on their visit to Hank McCamish Pavillion and say that was one of their lowest points. As 12.5-point favorites, Duke went in and lost outright 72-68. So will this be a lesson that players like Tyrese Proctor and Caleb Foster will ensure the team is aware of?
Data also shows that Georgia Tech has not only been below .500 this year, but are even worse at covering. But getting 13.5-points at home, even with how Duke has been at covering (7-4 overall) is quite large in ACC play. This is a balanced Yellow Jackets attack, as six of their players average nine or more points per game. With Lance Terry as the leading scorer, he will likely draw the Cooper Flagg matchup, which could make it tough to score.
What We Expect For #5 Duke vs. Georgia Tech On Saturday Afternoon
Looking at this game, I tend to lean taking the Georgia Tech team total under. Depending on your book, this line sits at around 66-67 points. The numbers tell us that you have the 230th offensive rated team going up against the 7th best defensive rated squad in the country. So even at home, points may be tough to come by. When Tech has taken on those quality teams I mentioned at the beginning, they only average 65 points per game. Those may be quality opponents, but none of them have the defensive presence that this Duke team possesses.
The one that keeps me away from taking the Blue Devils spread is how they have been offensively. Yes Duke is 45th in offensive rating, averaging 78 points per game, but recently those numbers have dipped. Only scoring 72 and 68 against Incarnate Word and George Mason respectively makes me worried if they only score around there in this spot. Road games in conference play can get messy, especially in the ACC. It is best to bank on the most consistent part of this Duke team to carry you to a betting win: their defense