The Blue Devils are back at home after spending some quality time with family and friends. But before they pop the New Year's champagne, they are facing a scrappy Virginia Tech Hokies team. There is no doubt that this is a double year for Tech already, sitting at 5-7, but that does not mean they cannot cover in this spot, if not win outright. Everyone knows conference play can be weird, especially in a spot like this heading into the new year. So we will look at what the historical data is telling us and give you our favorite play for the day
Duke vs. Virginia Tech Historical Data
So far this season, we have two polar opposites on the betting front. Virginia Tech are not only 5-7, but only 3-9 against the spread. Not only that, but they have yet to cover on the road, so that will be tough to overcome in this spot. The Blue Devils are 8-4 ATS and 5-2 at home, so the numbers certainly favor Duke. As far as the over/under goes, you are looking at a Duke team that has gone over just three times in twelve games. Virginia Tech is also just .500 on that front, so predicting an over/under in this spot is hard. Tech is also averaging just over 70 points per game, but has only played a couple high-caliber opponents so far.
Now what has hurt Duke teams over the past few matchups is their inability to make threes. In their last five head-to-head, Virginia Tech either hit more threes or tied the Blue Devils on four of those occasions. This iteration of Duke does have the edge this time, hitting over two more threes per game. They also should have a significant rebounding advantage, as they average six more and have ripped down more boards in four of their last five head-to-head. Defensively, the key player they will have to slow down is Tobi Lawal, who averages double-digit points on 58% shooting. This is likely the matchup Cooper Flagg will draw, so not overly concerned about Lawal going above his averages.
What We Expect For #4 Duke vs. Virginia Tech On Tuesday Night
We are still waiting for a big Duke offensive night at home. Auburn was likely their best so far, but in order to cover the team total line of 80.5, it will require an equal or better shooting night. Duke also lacks the pace to really run teams out of the gym with their scoring, so I am sceptical taking any over with this team. That does leave the under, which is a play I am certainly interested in. My hope is we can get the lines to move a couple more points up so I can hammer the under. The line as we write this article sits at 136, so if we could get to 138 or so, I would like that.
Now given where the total is at, you could turn to the spread. But at -24.5 for a conference game, all it takes is one bad stretch and Duke would not cover. That being said, laying your coin with a 5-7 team on the road in one of the toughest environments in the country is also not wise. What I would do is look more towards to the player prop side of things, and go with Tyrese Proctor Over 10.5 points. Proctor had 12 points against them back in January, now playing a bigger role in this team. That is my favorite play today, so lets' get a Blue Devils win heading into 2025.