Duke didn't look vulnerable much during a terrific regular season that featured just two losses by a combined four points. But with injuries to both Caleb Foster and Patrick Ngongba keeping them out of the ACC Tournament, the Blue Devils looked more mortal in Charlotte, though they ultimately found a way to get it done and capture the conference title.
The margin for error is thinner now, however, and Duke will likely have to grind some games out in order to get back to the Final Four for a second straight year and have a chance to win the program's first national championship in 11 seasons.
3 things that could case a premature March Madness exit for Duke
1. Patrick Ngongba doesn't get back to 100%
Center Patrick Ngongba is the anchor of the best defense in the country, but Duke has slipped a bit in defensive efficiency with him out of the lineup during the ACC Tournament. The Blue Devils fell from No. 1 in KenPom to No. 2 behind Michigan during his absence.
Ngongba is expected back for the NCAA Tournament, but it remains to be seen whether he's going to be good to go during Thursday's opener. Duke should be able to handle the opening weekend without him, but it'll need Ngongba to bee 100% for the second weekend.
Without him, there's a massive burden on the plate of Cameron Boozer defensively when he already has to shoulder so much of the production offensively.
The more physical teams in the East Region like St. John's, UConn, and Michigan State could give Duke a lot of problems if Ngongba isn't able to play or is hampered.
2. Cayden Boozer falters under the pressure of running the show
In Duke's ACC Tournament opener against Florida State, freshman guard Cayden Boozer struggled to fill the void left by Foster, and the Blue Devils nearly paid a significant price. Boozer only played 22 mintues, scoring nine points and shooting 3-of-10 from the floor as Duke narrowly avoided an upset loss to Florida State.
But Boozer bounced back in the semifinals and finals, putting together stellar performances in Duke wins over Clemson and Virginia. He scored 16 points in both games, playing 77 of a possible 80 minutes, including all 40 against the Cavaliers in the final.
Duke needs that version of Boozer throughout the NCAA Tournament to have a chance of winning a national championship. Any regression, and the Blue Devils will look as vulnerable as they did in the quarterfinals of the ACC Tournament.
3. Isaiah Evans going cold
While Cameron Boozer will be the focal point of everyone's game plan against Duke, teams know there's not a whole lot they are going to be able to do to slow down the soon-to-be Wooden Award winner. He's the best player in college basketball, after all.
But if Duke wants to make the Final Four and win the National Championship, it's going to need Isaiah Evans to continue playing like a star. And he's going to have to knock down threes to do it.
Evans hit 36.5% of his attempts from distance this year, and came up with big games in the ACC quarterfinal win over Florida State and in the final against Virginia. He shot a combined 11-of-24 (45.8%) from three in those two games that Duke won by a combined five points. The rest of the team combined to shoot 7-of-39 (17.9%).
Duke was able to overcome a poor shooting night from Evans against Clemson in the semifinals thanks to big games from the Boozer twins and Nikolas Khamenia drilling three three-pointers off the bench, but if Evans is off, the Blue Devils are at serious risk of getting knocked out of the tournament.
Evans shot a combined 1-of-6 from three in Duke's losses to Texas Tech and North Carolina.