After an 87-67 blowout of rival North Carolina, the 19-3 #9 Duke Blue Devils hope to extend their winning streak to five when they host the 14-9 Virginia Cavaliers tonight at 7:00 PM EST.
Duke vs Virginia Odds, Spread and Over/Under
WynnBET has the Blue Devils as 11.5-point favorites and -750 on the moneyline (bet $75 to win $10) while the over/under is set at 128.5. Duke has covered the spread in three straight, but the Cavaliers have covered in three of their last four as their offense has gotten hot. Where does the value lie for bettors tonight?
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Here’s how we’re betting tonight’s game:
Duke vs Virginia Prediction
Well that got out of hand quickly, didn’t it? The Blue Devils stomped all over North Carolina in a statement victory that should scare the rest of the country. They’ve covered the spread by an average of over 9 points in their last three and look every part of one of the best teams in America right now.
With the 11th-best adjusted offensive efficiency and 18th-ranked defensive efficiency, Duke has the stars and balance to beat anyone. They don’t turn the ball over, don’t let their opponents shoot free throws and can throw the other team off balance with their versatility.
Virginia is a solid team, with top-100 rankings in adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency, but they lack the shooters to keep up with elite teams despite their recent success. The Blue Devils shouldn’t have too much trouble downing the Cavaliers, who are 0-3 against the spread (ATS) in their last three games as underdogs.
Duke is on a 12-6-2 ATS run, but I worry for a potential let-down game after such a dominant victory over a rival.
Instead of looking to the spread, I’ll be making a bet on the total instead. This is easily the lowest total for a Duke game this season and Virginia’s reputation as an under-machine has given their totals value this season.
The over is 4-1 in Virginia’s last five as an underdog and 5-1 in their last six games overall. They’ve scored at least 65 in each of their last three, and with Duke’s offense rolling I think they’ll do enough to push this over.
Give me the over 128.5 (-110) as Duke extends their winning streak.
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