Is the Duke basketball recruiting model out of date?

Despite a huge transfer market, Duke basketball continues to bank on youth.

There is no denying that Mike Krzyzewski and the Duke basketball staff have dominated recruiting over the last 10 years or so. The Blue Devils have consistently had one of the top-ranked recruiting classes year in and year out.

The program reached an all-time high in recruiting success back in 2018 when the coaches in Durham were able to sign the three top-rated players in the country (RJ Barrett, Zion Williamson, Cam Reddish). But even in the last three years alone, college basketball has changed dramatically.

There are a couple of factors that have played an instrumental role in shifting the college basketball landscape. In 2020, the NBA G-League launched a new program that would allow players to start earning money and become a professional straight from high school.

In just its first year, the G-League was able to attract top prospect Jalen Green along with three other five-star recruits from the 2020 class.

Along with the G-League, the liberation of the transfer rules has certainly caused a seismic shift in how teams recruit players. Every coach is looking for ways to make their team better. There is more pressure than ever on coaches to win right away.

Why would a coach want to take an inexperienced and possibly immature 18-year-old when they could go get an experienced and mature 21- or 22-year-old out of the transfer portal? Most coaches would rather have players who can help their team right away, instead of players who need a year or two to develop.

In order to be a winning team at the highest level of college basketball, you must have both talent and experience.

The transfer portal allows coaches to add talented and experienced players to their roster. When recruiting high school kids, you are only adding talent, which is just a part of the equation. Look at some of the teams who made deep runs in this year’s tournament. Teams like Baylor, Gonzaga, USC, UCLA, and Arkansas all had transfers and more experienced players playing key roles.

Duke basketball suffering from a lack of balance

Lack of talent was not really one of the main reasons why the Blue Devils struggled this season. It was a lack of experience. Jordan Goldwire was the lone Duke basketball senior in the regular rotation and really the only upperclassmen who had a prominent role on the team.

The Blue Devils lost a ton of close games this year. Most of Duke’s games really could have gone either way. The team simply lacked the necessary experience required to consistently win those close games. In order to win consistently at this level, you need players on your team who know how to win, guys who have done it before at the college level.

You just don’t get that with a freshman- and sophomore-laden team.

As I mentioned before, talent is a key ingredient in building a successful team. The issue is that practically every player at the highest level of college hoops is talented. One of the reasons Baylor was so successful this season is that its players were just physically and mentally more mature than the teams they played.

They were stronger, tougher, and more together. The only way to arrive at that is by having older and more experienced players on your team.

Duke had enough talent to be a top-ranked team last year, but the squad severely lacked both physical and mental maturity. The Blue Devils looked like a young team. A lot of their players did not have the physical strength to match other teams. Because of that, they were not able to bring the physicality and toughness that is needed to be a national championship contender.

The inability to execute in the halfcourt and pull out wins in close games is an extension of mental immaturity. As Duke’s players get more experienced, they will improve in those areas.

While most college basketball teams are working the transfer portal trying to add more experienced players, the Blue Devils are still going after high school kids.

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Since lack of experience was one of the biggest reasons why the Duke basketball program had a down year, it is a little hard to understand why the coaches haven’t been more active in the transfer portal. It could just be that Coach K and the rest of the staff have a lot of faith in the incoming freshman class.

The Blue Devils will once again have one of the highest-rated recruiting classes in 2021. But the question moving forward will be, is dominating the high school recruiting scene really the best way to build a championship-caliber team?

Only time will tell.