Duke basketball: Why the small-ball lineup will work, mostly

This Duke basketball squad has the pieces to execute small-ball brilliance.

When the Duke basketball assistant coaches first predicted their veteran starting five, many of the program’s faithful found it to be no surprise. The experience-laden (or at least as close as we can get) projected lineup featured Jeremy Roach, Jordan Goldwire, Wendell Moore, Jalen Johnson, and Matthew Hurt.

As many of our esteemed writers at Ball Durham have already posited, this lineup will have its drawbacks and its advantages. This past Saturday’s 81-71 victory over Coppin State gave us some insight into how this lineup will come together.

First, Duke head coach Mike Krzyzewski elected to roll with Joey Baker, as opposed to Jeremy Roach, but seemed to think better of the idea by only giving Baker 15 minutes. Roach earned himself 29 minutes, and I would be shocked if Roach doesn’t start Tuesday vs Michigan St.

While this lineup looked shaky, to say the least, with an astounding 22 turnovers, it must be pointed out that Duke is a young team compared to Coppin St. Juan Dixon’s squad (look up the games Duke played again Dixon when he was at Maryland) was a tough matchup anyways, as the Eagles played five true guards.

With the aforementioned veteran experience mixed in with Dixon’s own brand of toughness, Coppin State was always going to be a hard out.

ALSO READ: Grading each Blue Devil’s performance in the season opener

Going forward, most pundits would agree this starting five featuring no true center seems to align itself with Duke basketball teams of the previous few years. Even further back than that, the idea of a stretch-four playing the five is not a new concept for Coach K.

Perhaps the greatest Blue Devil of all time, Christian Laettner, was one of the first cases in which Mike Krzyzewski toyed with a forward at the center position. I understand Laettner was close to seven feet tall, but his game, much like the current stretch-four occupying the paint in Matthew Hurt, was perimeter-oriented.

Sticking Laettner in the post proved to be a wise decision, leading to banners in 1991 and 1992. Laettner in the middle was a matchup nightmare for opposing centers, who were forced to get in a stance 20 feet farther out than they would have chosen.

I believe Coach K is thinking along those lines with sticking 6-foot-9 sophomore Matthew Hurt inside. It is true that today’s game has changed to allow even the tallest of trees to have some sort of outside game, but I don’t think interior players’ defense has quite caught up.

Superstar freshman Vernon Carey Jr. proved last year that the concept of a center with a 3-point stroke can do damage to opposing defenses. His 17.8 points per game, including a 38.1 percentage from beyond the arc, showed Coach K that even the hardest of back-to-the-basket scorers must have a perimeter game.

Matthew Hurt came to Duke last year with a ready-made long-distance stroke, shooting 39.3 percent from downtown. As I’ve mentioned in previous articles, Hurt needs to up his toughness and his pedestrian 3.8 rebounds per game from last season.

While Laettner may have been perimeter-oriented, his greatest virtue was his toughness and willingness to fight anyone, anywhere, anytime, for dominance in the paint. Hurt needs to harness that killer instinct to avoid getting bullied off the low block.

If Hurt can do all that, this lineup featuring nobody over 6-foot-9 should keep Duke basketball on top of the ACC pecking order. With almost all teams adopting small-ball lineups into their daily plans, the Blue Devils have the superior athletes and depth to run anybody out of the gym.

Duke basketball’s small-ball lineup is sure to see roadblocks

But as per usual, that pesky team eight miles down Highway 15-501 will likely be the proverbial thorn in the side of the small-ball Blue Devil squad. North Carolina head coach Roy Williams has decided to stay the course and build his team from the post out, invoking some of his classic title-winning lineups of the past.

Just like in 2017, 2009, and 2005, UNC will look to wear opponents down with three or four guys who can brawl in the post and dominate the glass. Duke does have the ability to mix and match lineups with a few big men on the bench capable of withstanding all the Tar Heels jumping over their backs for rebounds.

Trying to beat a team at its own game rarely brings success, though, and Duke will need to master this perimeter-oriented offense in order to paint Chapel Hill royal blue again. If Matthew Hurt can improve upon his solid but streaky jump shooting and increase his rebounds to around six a game (Laettner only averaged 7.8 across his four years), Duke will be well on its way to a sixth banner this year.

Stay tuned to Ball Durham for more Duke basketball news and views.