Rumors of Duke basketball now trailing in one major recruiting race

Duke basketball’s prolonged pursuit of a No. 1 recruit could come up empty.

In the battle for Hamilton (Wis.) small forward Patrick Baldwin Jr., the 247Sports Crystal Ball forecast still hasn’t changed ever since the first pick came in more than two years ago. No, all the predictions have always favored the Duke basketball staff to haul in the 6-foot-10, 205-pound phenom, who ranks No. 1 overall on the 247Sports 2021 Composite.

Nevertheless, the sentiments among insiders appear to be shifting as Baldwin Jr. looks to choose — perhaps relatively soon — from the 10 finalists that he named back in the spring: Duke, Georgetown, Kentucky, Michigan, North Carolina, Northwestern, UCLA, Virginia, Wisconsin, and Wisconsin-Milwaukee.

In fact, as crazy as it may sound to some and despite what the Crystal Ball is showing, the last school on the above list might now be in the lead.

Per an article on Saturday from Jerry Meyer of 247Sports, the latest word on the recruiting trail is that Baldwin Jr. is falling more and more in love with the idea of helping out his namesake, Pat Baldwin, who has averaged roughly 20 losses in his three seasons as the head coach at lowly UW-Milwaukee:

“There are rumors of Patrick Baldwin Jr. leaning towards staying in Milwaukee and playing for his father.”

Some folks believe that Duke basketball head coach Mike Krzyzewski, who extended an offer to Baldwin Jr. way back in the summer of 2018 and hosted the smooth, high-IQ sniper for an unofficial visit this past February, has scared off the 17-year-old by building a logjam of five-star talent at the forward spots.

However, Meyer noted that the commitments from O’Dea (Wash.) power forward Paolo Banchero and Archbishop Stepinac (N.Y.) small forward AJ Griffin — who rank No. 3 and No. 6, respectively, and together account for the entire 2021 Duke basketball class at this point — might not be a legit deterrent to Baldwin Jr. after all:

“I don’t see a problem with Baldwin Jr., Paolo Banchero, and AJ Griffin playing together. If Baldwin Jr. does go to Duke, I would expect a lot of Banchero at the five, Baldwin Jr. at the four, and AJ Griffin at the three. That would be one heck of an athletic and skilled frontline. Banchero is a four/five to me while Baldwin Jr. is a four/three and Griffin is a three/four.”

ALSO READ: Three signs Paolo Banchero is heading for No. 1 ranking

When is the key Duke basketball target likely to choose a destination?

Another 247Sports recruiting expert, Eric Bossi, weighed in on Sunday with what he’s heard from Baldwin Jr. directly plus what he’s hearing from others as the Nov. 11-18 early signing period draws near (potentially of consequence is the fact Baldwin Jr. turns 18 on Nov. 18):

“Last I was able to speak with him, it was very clear that playing for his father at Milwaukee was something that he was considering very heavily. That was about a month ago. Since then, there have been more rumblings that the odds of him sticking with family have been growing.”

Bossi then suggested a possible timeline and pointed out that the rumors of Baldwin Jr. ending up at a Horizon League cellar-dweller could be nothing more than exactly that, rumors:

“There is nothing concrete out there, and Duke is still very much in the mix with likely the best shot of any other program to land the skilled forward. As for a decision, I don’t anticipate Baldwin will take too much longer, but I would be somewhat surprised if he decided before the end of the early signing period that begins on Wednesday.”

Duke basketball offers are also still on the table to two other 2021 five-stars: Paul VI (Va.) shooting guard Trevor Keels, who boasts a No. 16 composite ranking, and IMG (Fla.) center Charles Bediako, who sits No. 23 among high school seniors. Though Keels and Bediako have also named finalists, they too have yet to announce definitive timelines for picking a winner.

Stay tuned to Ball Durham for more on Patrick Baldwin Jr. plus other Duke basketball recruiting news and views.