Duke basketball: What Caleb Houstan’s decision means for Blue Devils

Perhaps the Caleb Houstan news isn’t all bad for the Duke basketball staff.

Yes, the Duke basketball recruiters came up short in the race for Montverde (Fla.) small forward Caleb Houstan, who ranks No. 8 overall on the 247Sports 2021 Composite.

But after extending an offer to Houstan in June — just before the 17-year-old announced his reclass from 2022 to 2021 — the Duke basketball program was never the frontrunner in the eyes of insiders.

Then again, neither was Michigan, at least not until about 12 hours before the five-star’s announced commitment to the Wolverines on Friday, which put Juwan Howard’s program at No. 1 on the 247Sports 2021 Class Rankings (Duke has fallen to No. 24 despite two top 10 pledges of its own).

The Twitter account of Tipton Edits, which does the graphics for many recruits’ announcements on social media, had hinted late Thursday that Houstan’s decision was on its way. Shortly thereafter, recruiting insider Andrew Slater basically gave away that the winner would be Michigan.

Houstan represents the highest-ranked Wolverines commit since 247Sports rankings became a thing in 2007. The 6-foot-8, 205-pound sniper chose Michigan over fellow finalists Duke, Virginia, and Alabama (though no 247Sports Crystal Ball picks existed until Thursday, many experts had seen the Crimson Tide as the frontrunner).

Some positive takeaways for Duke basketball

First, Mike Krzyzewski and his assistants should be exhaling a sigh of relief that Houstan, who is sure to be a top weapon at the college level, didn’t wind up choosing Virginia. Besides, as it is, the Cavaliers have averaged less than three ACC losses across the past three regular seasons — the defending national champs, still, as well — and are Duke’s most formidable foe of late.

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Also, it’s possible the rejection from Houstan is a sign of fantastic recruiting news for the Blue Devils. Maybe the 17-year-old had heard or felt that Duke will land one or both of its other two five-star targets who play at or near his position: Hamilton (Wis.) small forward Patrick Baldwin Jr., who ranks No. 1 overall, and Paul VI (Va.) shooting guard Trevor Keels, who ranks No. 16.

Coach K and his gang are the unanimous favorites inside the Crystal Ball, after all, for both Baldwin Jr. and Keels. Adding both to the five-star pledges they already boast in O’Dea (Wash.) power forward Paolo Banchero and Archbishop Stepinac (N.Y.) small forward AJ Griffin — No. 3 and No. 6, respectively — would most likely equate to the Blue Devils finishing with the nation’s No. 1 class.

Both Baldwin Jr. and Keels have named finalists. Plus, they have noted that their own announcements could come in time for the early signing period, Nov. 11-18 (Baldwin Jr.’s birthday is Nov. 18).

The only other 2021 prospect still holding a Duke offer is IMG (Fla.) center Charles Bediako, a five-star who ranks No. 23 and is seen by most as a future Alabama commit.

Stay tuned to Ball Durham for more Duke basketball recruiting news and views.