Duke basketball program faces major recruiting issue

A serious dilemma may await Duke basketball recruiting efforts in November.

When it comes to who will stay and who will go following the upcoming season, the Duke basketball coaches must have more questions than answers.

Literally.

Because due to uncertainty regarding which players, if any, will be ready for the NBA — in combination with the free year of eligibility for all winter athletes — more than half of the 11 potential regular contributors for the 2020-21 Blue Devils have up-in-the-air 2021-22 futures.

Most could come back. Or most could just as easily leave.

The unpredictability is beyond that at any other school, save maybe fellow five-star magnet Kentucky. Plus, seeing that there are no pieces to the Duke basketball roster who ranked inside the top 10 in their respective classes in high school, the unknowns outnumber those in Durham from any year of the one-and-done era.

Adding to the predicament, the early signing period is Nov. 11-18. Granted, Mike Krzyzewski and his staff should at least get signatures from their two pledges to date in O’Dea (Wash.) power forward Paolo Banchero and Archbishop Stepinac (N.Y.) small forward AJ Griffin, five-stars who rank No. 3 and No. 6, respectively, on the 247Sports 2021 Composite.

But Nov. 11 is only two weeks away. And even Nov. 18 is still a week before the tipoff to the college basketball season on Nov. 25.

This means that any of the four remaining 2021 Duke targets who may intend on announcing their college choice before or during the early signing period won’t have a chance to judge for themselves which Blue Devils are showing hints of being legit pro prospects in time for the 2021 NBA Draft.

The only name that always appears on 2021 mock drafts at the moment is freshman Jalen Johnson.

This, of course, means that any combination of Paul VI (Va.) shooting guard Trevor Keels, Hamilton (Wis.) small forward Patrick Baldwin Jr., Montverde (Fla.) small forward Caleb Houstan, and IMG (Fla.) center Charles Bediako could end up deciding on a destination without having much of a clue as to who all might compete with them for playing time next season should they wind up at Duke.

Though Banchero has recently hinted otherwise, this type of cluelessness could spell bad news for the Blue Devils.

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To that point, 247Sports recruiting insider Eric Bossi opined on Wednesday that he could see November announcements from any of the four who are still waiting to answer their Duke basketball offers. Besides, all four of those top 25 five-stars have named finalists.

The fluid roster outlook must be on the mind of each Duke basketball target

Would Keels pick Duke without having a clue as to whether guys like Jordan Goldwire, Jeremy Roach, and DJ Steward will be back? Would Baldwin Jr. or Houstan pick Duke without knowing for sure as to whether guys like Jaemyn Brakefield, Wendell Moore, and Matthew Hurt will still be around? Would Bediako pick Duke without knowing the future of Mark Williams?

Finally, would potential calamities outweigh potential benefits if two or more of the remaining targets join #TheBrotherhood and then watch as several of the above Blue Devils decide to return? Put simply, could there be too few minutes and touches to go around for what could be in the neighborhood of eight or nine former five-star recruits on a single roster?

So many questions. So few answers. After all, Johnson is the only consensus early departee in the eyes of Duke basketball fans and media right now.

So while the upcoming signing period could be magnificent for the Blue Devils, it could just as easily come with a couple of major disappointments. Of course, the most disappointing news would be if the nation’s No. 1 recruit, Baldwin Jr., landed elsewhere; something to remember is the smooth sharpshooter’s 18th birthday coincides with the last day of the early signing period.

Yet as noted above, even fantastic news — i.e., Baldwin Jr., Keels, and maybe another inking with Duke — could lead to unintended consequences down the road in the form of a talent overload.

Stay tuned to Ball Durham for more Duke basketball recruiting news and views.