Predicting who will be Duke basketball’s leading scorer this season

Will a freshman be Duke basketball’s top scorer for a fourth straight year?

Duke basketball lost its top three scorers from a season ago. Altogether, the Blue Devils lost nearly 75 percent of their offensive production from last year’s squad. It sounds like a staggering number, but this is nothing new for Mike Krzyzewski and his program.

Every year as of late, the Blue Devils lose the majority of their scoring from the previous season. I am not concerned at all that Duke will fall off offensively.

Between the four returnees from last year’s squad, they averaged just a combined 26.8 points per game. Wendell Moore and Jordan Goldwire were more defensive players, and Matthew Hurt and Joey Baker were primarily outside shooters. Out of the four returning players, Hurt is by far the most likely to be the leading scorer this season.

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Last year, Hurt averaged just under 10 points per game while playing just a shade over 20 minutes per game. His inability to defend and get on the glass prevented him from receiving more playing time, which ultimately prevented him from being a more prominent scoring presence. However, Hurt did prove capable of being a lead scoring option, putting up 16 double-digit performances.

Some of Hurt’s best games included a 25-point performance against Boston College, where he shot 62 percent from the field and connected on five 3-pointers. He also had a big game against Miami, scoring 22 points and going 8-for-11 from the field.

While those performances were encouraging, they were also against two teams at the bottom of the conference. Hurt showed he can be an effective scorer against lesser competition, but he struggled against some of the top ACC teams. The forward is now a sophomore, and that added experience should help him replicate that success against stiffer competition.

Hurt is likely the only player on the Duke basketball roster who can score consistently both in the low post and out on the perimeter. He seemed to go to the post more against smaller teams and hung out on the perimeter against bigger and more athletic teams a season ago. With Vernon Carey Jr. gone, he should have more opportunities for post-up situations.

If Hurt can become an efficient paint scorer, he could easily be Duke’s leading scorer this season.

But Duke has brought in six new freshmen, all with the potential of becoming key contributors for the Blue Devils this season.

What to expect from Duke basketball’s star rookie

Out of the six, I believe Jalen Johnson is the likeliest to become Duke’s leading scorer. Johnson is a tremendous athlete with excellent size and perimeter skills. It is still unclear whether or not he will be able to consistently knock down outside shots, but with his size, athleticism, and ball-handling ability, he should be a force in transition and difficult to keep away from the basket.

The Duke coaches will likely use Johnson in a similar way to how they used both Brandon Ingram and Jayson Tatum. Duke loved to isolate both of those players around the elbow and give them the freedom and creativity to make something happen.

Johnson has the size and physical tools to consistently get into the paint and either finish or draw a foul. He is likely to lead the Blue Devils in free throw attempts this year.

If the Blue Devils play an aggressive style of defense, which I assume they will, Johnson should have plenty of opportunities to get deflections, come up with steals, and get out on the fastbreak, where he is an electric finisher.

Jalen Johnson will also be a difficult guy to match up with one-on-one, and I fully expect the Duke coaching staff to exploit that. He has the versatility to play multiple positions and is a guy opposing coaches will have a tough time preparing for.

Overall, Duke has a very deep roster this season, and the Blue Devils could very well have four or five guys who average in double figures. I do not expect anyone from this team to average anywhere close to 20 points per game.

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There is a fairly even distribution of talent on this roster, and multiple guys, including both Matthew Hurt and Jalen Johnson, will get the chance to show that they can be the leader of the Blue Devils offense for this weird and crazy 2020-21 season.

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