Duke basketball shooting should return to being a strength, not a weakness.
Historically, when you think about Duke basketball, great shooting is something that comes to mind. The Blue Devils have enjoyed great shooters and great shooting teams overall. The program has produced one of the greatest all-time shooters in JJ Redick. Guys like Jon Scheyer, Kyle Singler, and Luke Kennard have been able to carry on the torch.
Over the past few years, though, Duke has struggled to be a reliable 3-point shooting team.
When the Blue Devils suffered first-round losses in two out of three years to Lehigh and Mercer, I was concerned that they had become too reliant on the outside shot. When the three’s weren’t falling, Duke became vulnerable and susceptible to losing against any good team. Both Lehigh and Mercer were able to capitalize on Duke’s over-reliance on the 3-point shot.
Back then, there were times when the Blue Devils would be having off nights from three but instead of switching it up and attacking more on offense, they would shoot even more from the outside.
That changed in the 2014-15 season when the Blue Devils brought in the No. 1 recruiting class and built their team around Jahlil Okafor. It was really the first time that I could remember that Duke had a dominant low-post scorer and relied on points in the paint more than 3-pointers.
As a team that year, Duke was not particularly great at shooting. Justise Winslow could make them but not with much consistency. Tyus Jones made a ton of clutch shots, but his outside shooting was not his greatest strength. The Blue Devils relied heavily on guys like Matt Jones and Quinn Cook for points from beyond the arc.
At that point, Duke was a good shooting team but not great. Over the next couple of years, the Blue Devils once again became heavily reliant on the 3-point shot.
The 2017-18 season was really the first Duke basketball team that was not a very good shooting team. That squad did feature a couple of snipers in Gary Trent Jr. and Grayson Allen, but if those guys weren’t hitting, Duke would practically get nothing from the outside.
The following season, 2018-19, is when the shooting really fell off. Duke was loaded with talent and athleticism but struggled mightily to knock down perimeter shots.
As a team that year, the Blue Devils shot under 31 percent from three. That ranked No. 329 out of a total of 347 D1 basketball teams. While Duke did have great all-around scorers like Zion Williamson, RJ Barrett, and Cam Reddish, none of them ever found consistency from downtown.
The game that typified Duke’s outside shooting woes came in a January matchup against Syracuse. The Blue Devils did exactly what Jim Boheim’s vaunted 2-3 zone wanted them to do: shoot a lot of threes.
In other years, Duke was able to handle the zone with its outside shooting. But on this night, the Blue Devils shot an ungodly 9-for-43 from 3-point range. Some of the Syracuse defenders were not even stepping out to defend the three, essentially daring Duke to take those outside shots.
Duke’s struggles from three reared their ugly head that year once again in the Round of 32. Duke went 10-for-25 from three, which isn’t terrible, but the Blue Devils kept settling for deep shots instead of being aggressive on offense. UCF loaded up on Zion Williamson and RJ Barrett, forcing the other guys to make shots. The strategy worked, as UCF nearly pulled off a miraculous upset.
Duke was honestly lucky to win that game.
The 2019-20 Duke basketball squad was a huge improvement from the previous year’s team. Last season, the Blue Devils shot 35 percent from three, which ranked No. 79 in the country. Not bad, but not good either.
However, Duke did not attempt a lot of threes a season ago, as 247 D1 teams attempted more 3-pointers than the Blue Devils. Their two best players were not really 3-point shooters in Tre Jones and Vernon Carery Jr. Duke also only hit about seven threes a game as a team, which ranked No. 203 in the nation.
So does Duke basketball have the pieces to be a great shooting team again?
At this point, it is still a mystery. Duke did not lose a lot of 3-point shooting from last year’s team. Both Tre Jones and Cassius Stanley had solid shooting seasons, but neither of them was considered deadly from deep.
What’s encouraging is that Duke does return its best two shooters from last year’s team in Matthew Hurt and Joey Baker. Hurt led the 2019-20 Blue Devils in total 3-pointers made with 42 a season ago. Among those with more than 20 attempts, Baker led the team in 3-point percentage at just under 40 percent.
The biggest asset of both Hurt and Baker is their ability to knock down 3-point shots. Baker won Duke a couple of games last year with his hot 3-point shooting. Hurt was one of the few Blue Devils opposing defenses had to close out hard on.
Out of the other returnees, Wendell Moore and Jordan Goldwire were not big factors from three last year. Goldwire has steadily improved as an outside shooter throughout his career, though, so I would expect him to take and make more 3-pointers this year. With slightly more minutes and a slightly bigger role, Moore should also be an improved 3-point shooter.
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Out of the six Duke basketball freshmen, only DJ Steward comes in with the reputation of being a good outside shooter. Steward is a skilled combo guard who has shot-making abilities.
Meanwhile, guys like Jalen Johnson, Jaemyn Brakefield, and Henry Coleman all bring their own unique talents and should provide the Blue Devils with athleticism and versatility. Yet they will each have to prove themselves as shooters before opposing defenses really start to respect them.
Point guard Jeremy Roach is more of a speedy attacker and scoring guard than a shooting point guard. If Roach is able to provide consistent production from the outside, Duke could become an excellent outside shooting team.
I do not think this year’s Duke basketball team will struggle to shoot as much as the 2018-19 Blue Devils did. I also do not think this year’s Duke team will shoot it like the Duke teams earlier in the decade.
But I would expect to see similar 3-point shooting numbers to what last year’s Duke squad ended with. Duke has some capable outside shooters, but shooting will not likely be this team’s greatest strength. Shooting is essential to have success in basketball these days, and the 2020-21 Blue Devils should have enough to make a run at a sixth national title.
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