Duke basketball: Could Roy Williams snag Coach K’s top recruiting target?

An insider all but crushed one recruiting dream of Duke basketball’s rival.

In principle, North Carolina still has a shot to land Hamilton (Wis.) small forward Patrick Baldwin Jr., the No. 1 overall prospect on the 247Sports 2021 Composite. After all, the 6-foot-10, 205-pound five-star has UNC in his top 10 alongside the Duke basketball program plus Georgetown, Kentucky, Michigan, Northwestern, UCLA, Virginia, Wisconsin, and Wisconsin-Milwaukee.

However, in response to a wishful-thinking question from an apparent Tar Heel supporter, Rivals insider Corey Evans spelled out on Wednesday the low probability that head coach Roy Williams has to beat out his Duke counterpart, Mike Krzyzewski, for the elite services of Baldwin Jr.:

“Good question…I’m guessing that you’re a Carolina fan, so I wish this part of my answer would be more to your liking, but I give the Tar Heels very little chance with Pat Baldwin, despite Paolo Banchero’s commitment to Duke last week…”

ALSO READ: Predicting Duke’s 2021 class after major momentum boost

Adding insult to injury, Evans continued to seemingly poke fun at the Tar Heels’ hopes by pointing out that the Duke basketball pledge from Banchero — a 6-foot-9, 235-pound gem of a power forward who ranks No. 3 overall in the class — should actually boost the Blue Devils’ standing with Baldwin Jr.:

“That doesn’t mean that UNC hasn’t invested the proper time in recruiting Baldwin, but rather that Banchero’s decision has very little impact on whether Baldwin chooses UNC. The two players would only make each other better, so Duke is the team to beat. If he doesn’t pick the blueblood…it will be because it was too difficult to decline the chance to play for his dad at Milwaukee.”

Once again, a recruiting insider has asserted that the Blue Devils should only have Baldwin Jr.’s namesake to worry about. Obviously, it doesn’t hurt Duke’s cause that more than two years have now passed since the smooth sharpshooter — with “best of all time” aspirations, as he admits in the video below — became the all-time youngest recipient of a Krzyzewski offer.

At one time, Baldwin Jr. intended to decide on a college before his senior season. But the 17-year-old has recently expressed uncertainty with that timeline due to the uncertainty surrounding in-person visits in the fall. That said, he has also said he won’t make any further cuts to his list; plus, like Banchero, he seems like a guy who may unveil his pick without warning.

Should Coach K and his gang indeed come out on top — the 247Sports Crystal Ball continues to say they will — then they would boast three of 2021’s top 10 players. Baldwin Jr. would join Banchero and Archbishop Stepinac (N.Y.) five-star small forward AJ Griffin, who ranks No. 6 overall among his peers and pulled the trigger on becoming a Blue Devil back in November.

Naturally, a haul with those three would instantly draw comparisons to the renowned 2018 Duke basketball class, which included three top 10 studs of its own. Indeed, the prep versions of RJ Barrett, Cam Reddish, and Zion Williamson are at least loosely comparable, respectively, to Griffin, Baldwin Jr., and Banchero. Cheers to that possibility.

Might UNC win the battle for a different Duke basketball target?

Three other 2021 five-stars are on Coach K’s radar: Paul VI (Va.) shooting guard Trevor Keels, who ranks No. 16 overall; Montverde (Fla.) small forward Caleb Houstan, who ranks No. 8; and IMG (Fla.) center Charles Bediako, who ranks No. 20.

Though the frontrunners for Keels, Houstan, and Bediako aren’t quite as clear as the two for Baldwin Jr., Evans did offer the Tar Heels some solace in this Duke-dominated cycle of top 10 pursuits (Banchero and Griffin are the only two such recruits yet off the board):

“It is not all bad news for UNC. Caleb Houstan is someone the Heels have heavily recruited in recent months. Houstan is a former high school teammate of incoming freshman Day’Ron Sharpe, and North Carolina is a school to watch for in the Canadian’s recruitment…And while Houstan is one of the few players on Duke’s recruiting board, UNC is in a better spot for the premier shot-maker.”

Regardless of how these recruitments play out, of course, the UNC-Duke basketball rivalry won’t be lacking for stars anytime soon.

Stay tuned to Ball Durham for more Duke basketball recruiting news and views.