Duke basketball: Projecting Vernon Carey Jr.’s NBA potential
Examining how Duke basketball’s Vernon Carey Jr. dominated
I could fill the whole page with staggering numbers that Vernon Carey Jr. put up last year. He was an ACC leader in almost every meaningful statistical category. He was an All-ACC First Team performer and ACC Freshman of the Year after finishing as the ACC leader in field goal percentage, player efficiency rating, free throws, win shares, and offensive box plus/minus.
Carey also finished in the top five in the ACC in points per game, total points, blocks per game, total rebounds, two-point field goals, offensive rating, defensive rating, and true shooting percentage. He was Duke’s leader in points, rebounds, blocks, free throws made, and field goal percentage.
Dominant would certainly be an appropriate word to describe the season that Carey had as a freshman. Carey actually put up better numbers than Jahlil Okafor did back in 2014-15 (the Duke basketball one-and-done was ACC Player of the Year that season). Carey scored more points, grabbed more rebounds, and blocked more shots than Okafor did. Throughout the entire season, Okafor was projected to be a top pick in the draft and ended up being drafted third overall.
The NBA game has changed a lot, though, even in the last five years. Okafor has never really been able to carve out a major role for himself in the league. The game has shifted away from running an offense through a low-post scorer. Perhaps that is the reason why so few scouts and draft “experts” are high on Carey’s potential.
Similar to Okafor back in 2014-15, Carey did most of his damage on the low block. He played with his back to the basket, using his strength and physicality to overpower and finish through defenders. I remember hearing before the 2019-20 season started that Carey hadn’t played much in the post before. I couldn’t imagine how a 6-10, 270-pound lefthanded tank could have never played in the post.
What was his high school coach thinking? But maybe his high school coach was onto something in realizing that there is almost no place for the traditional big man in today’s NBA. Big men need to have guard skills. They need to be able to shoot it from the outside, handle the ball when necessary, and be light on their feet so they can defend the perimeter while still protecting the basket.
Carey would have been a complete waste had he never learned how to play in the post. He does have good ballhandling ability for a big man and a soft touch. But when he gets the ball in the post, he becomes a force.
Duke basketball head coach Mike Krzyzewski made it clear that his star freshman was going to be playing down low. Carey connected on just eight 3-pointers in 21 attempts for the season. I do believe that he could have been more of a threat from deep since he has good form, nice balance, and a soft touch. Duke didn’t need Carey shooting three’s, though; rather, they needed his paint production.
Outside shooting is certainly not Carey’s biggest strength, but I do believe he will improve as a shooter. He shot the ball a lot in high school but didn’t need to in college. If you can score or get fouled nearly every time you get a touch in the paint, why would you abandon that? That is a testament to the self-awareness of Carey, knowing where he is most effective.
It showed that Carey has a team-first mentality, willing to do what is best for the squad. Playing on the perimeter and shooting three’s might have boosted his draft stock, but by dominating the paint, Carey showed that he cares about winning. It seems that nowadays, most big men want to hang out on the perimeter and launch threes, instead of taking advantage of their size.
Carey being a lefty makes him more intriguing. Throughout history, there have been a few lefthanded post scorers. In today’s NBA, there are almost none. I do not think it is an advantage or disadvantage, but it would certainly make Carey unique.
Now, let’s look at the most advantageous aspects of Carey’s game and then his biggest areas for improvement…