Duke basketball: Crystal Ball looks crummy for Blue Devils

Is Duke basketball on the verge of another rejection from a 2021 five-star?

The 247Sports Crystal Ball is by no means an exact science. But anytime predictions come in for a high-profile Duke basketball recruiting race, particularly when the pick follows that day’s related big news, well, that nugget itself is undeniably newsworthy (at least to those of us who live and breathe this kind of thing).

So let’s recap what all has transpired and then look at where the Blue Devils stand moving forward for the target in question: O’Dea (Wash.) power forward Paolo Banchero, an agile, imposing, total-package five-star who ranks No. 3 overall on the 247Sports 2021 Composite.

First, it’s important to remember that Banchero hasn’t exactly kept mum in regards to his frequent discussions with Sunrise Christian (Kan.) five-star point guard Kennedy Chandler about potentially teaming up in college. In fact, they each have mentioned the idea in seemingly every interview dating back to their time together at a USA Basketball event last summer when they apparently clicked, on and off the court, on all cylinders.

Therefore, on Friday, once Chandler announced his commitment to Tennessee over his four other finalists — Duke, Kentucky, Memphis, and North Carolina — it wasn’t at all shocking that 247Sports director of scouting Jerry Meyer gave the Volunteers their first pick inside the Crystal Ball for Banchero. After all, the two buddies took official visits to Knoxville the same weekend last October and have both included UT among their favorites from the start.

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Now, the “VIP SCOOP” tag on Meyer’s weighted “lead expert pick” implies to non-subscribers that the sudden new forecast involves some behind-the-scenes knowledge. Factoring in the site’s new formula to determine Crystal Ball leaders, the chase for Banchero now shows as a three-way tie between Kentucky, Tennessee, and Washington.

Chances are Duke basketball still has time to make up ground

Simply put, no matter how one views the Crystal Ball, it’s obvious that nothing about it looks promising for the other three schools that made Banchero’s top six in April: Arizona, Duke, and Gonzaga. That said, based on recent comments from the Seattle native, it could be as late as next April before he makes up his mind on where he’ll spend the 2020-21 season (judging from his mixtapes, that’s likely to be his only season before becoming a lottery pick).

In other words, barring a quick trigger in response to Chandler’s decision, Banchero is likely to allot Mike Krzyzewski and his staff plenty of time to change his mind (assuming, of course, that the latest Crystal Ball pick is indeed an accurate reflection of where the 17-year-old’s mind is at right now).

Yet if the coaches in Durham are serious about landing Banchero, who took an official visit to Duke that coincided with the 2019-20 team’s Countdown to Craziness, then they’ll surely need to host many more virtual visits with him like the one that reportedly included the whole crew just two weeks ago.

Though the Blue Devils have already reeled in one of the most complete 2021 talents in Archbishop Stepinac (N.Y.) five-star small forward AJ Griffin, they have now been on the losing end of three consecutive announcements and currently hold only one Crystal Ball lead for their remaining targets. Albeit, that one Crystal Ball is for Hamilton (Wis.) five-star small forward Patrick Baldwin Jr., the nation’s No. 1 rising senior.

In addition to Banchero and Baldwin Jr., three others from the class, all top 20 five-stars, are still pondering Duke basketball offers: Paul VI (Va.) shooting guard Trevor Keels, Montverde (Fla.) small forward Caleb Houstan, and IMG (Fla.) center Charles Bediako.

Stay tuned to Ball Durham for more on Paolo Banchero plus other Duke basketball recruiting news and views.