Probabilities for each Duke basketball player’s return next season

Duke basketball (Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images)
Duke basketball (Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images) /
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Duke basketball
Duke basketball players Jordan Goldwire, Alex O’Connell, and Vernon Carey Jr. (Photo by Streeter Lecka/Getty Images) /

30 percent, stranger things have happened

G- Jordan Goldwire (Jr)

G- Alex O’Connell (Jr)

I’m fairly certain these troops will live to fight another Duke day, but you have to account for variable change.

Remember Taylor King? Me neither, and I know that came out of nowhere, but it has bearing on my reasoning here. King left the Duke basketball program in 2008 after one season, and I honestly can’t remember why.

Junior guards Jordan Goldwire and Alex O’Connell are almost certainly coming back, but anything from promised playing time somewhere else, incoming talent, or the alignment of Mars and Durham may deliver these kids elsewhere.

Goldwire HAS to be in the conversation for Most Improved Player in the ACC (nope, nevermind, he somehow received ZERO votes). His defense is a study in chaos and footwork, and he essentially turns himself into a shutdown cornerback, putting his man on an island. His shooting and handles have also improved, which makes me think he will have a spot as a senior next year regardless of who Duke brings in. But again, weird happens.

O’Connell probably has the purest shooting stroke on the team (though his percentage this season doesn’t show it). And earlier in the season, he was a dependable role player. Some nights, you could just tell the ball was going in right off his hand like J.J. Redick or Trajan Langdon.

But O’Connell’s minutes have been reduced to 13.3 a game, and his lack of development should keep him in Cameron Indoor Stadium next season, but this one could be the random transfer (doubt it).

ALSO READ: The 100 greatest Blue Devils under Coach K

Finally, it’s time for the guys you are definitely not going to see take off the Duke basketball jersey for the last time whenever this season ends…