Probabilities for each Duke basketball player’s return next season

Duke basketball (Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images)
Duke basketball (Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images) /
3 of 7
Duke basketball
Duke basketball freshman Vernon Carey Jr. (Photo by Grant Halverson/Getty Images) /

99 percent, almost certain to leave

C- Vernon Carey Jr. (Fr)

It would take a divine miracle to get this young man to come back.

Duke basketball freshman big man Vernon Carey Jr. has exceeded even my wildest expectations this year by averaging 17.8 points and 8.8 rebounds per game. On Saturday night, he made two skilled UNC post players, Armando Bacot and Garrison Brooks, look absolutely foolish at times and took the whole league to task in most matchups this season.

ALSO READ: Tar Heels still can’t count to seven

On Monday, Carey Jr. picked up a couple of honors for his dominant efforts. In addition to becoming the 12th Blue Devil in history to win ACC Freshman of the Year, he landed on the All-ACC First Team.

Success comes at a cost, though, as NBA scouts will undoubtedly drool over the 6-foot-10, 270-pound Florida native’s size, skill, and attitude. Every mock draft out there right now has Carey Jr. in the first round, and as of late, his name is popping up more and more as a potential 2020 lottery pick.

Now, let’s look at a pair of Blue Devils whose departure seems a touch less certain…