Duke basketball program has often struggled following home losses

Across the past 40 Duke basketball seasons, the Blue Devils have lost nearly 40 percent of the time in the game following a home loss.

Based on past reactions from Mike Krzyzewski to losses inside Cameron Indoor Stadium — particularly giant upsets — the wisest prediction entering No. 1 Duke’s home game against not-to-be-underestimated Winthrop on Friday at 7:00 p.m. (ACCN) is that the 40th-year Duke basketball coach will roll out significant changes to either his lineups or schemes — or both.

Also, in light of The Walking Dead performance from the Blue Devils (now 6-1) throughout an 85-83 historic upset loss in overtime to Stephen F. Austin on Tuesday night in Durham — snapped a 150-game win streak at home against non-conference foes — Krzyzewski is sure to demand more emotion from his players by showing more of his own (look for his jacket to come off).

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Oftentimes, though, the energy boosts following home losses have come with consequences during the first 20 minutes of action. In other words, during such contests, past Blue Devils have often struggled to keep in check their intense desire to bounce back with a win — resulting in numerous turnovers due to their overly anxious offense and opponents’ numerous easy buckets due to their overly aggressive defense.

Duke’s previous lack-of-fight upset loss at home came three seasons back against an N.C. State squad that ended the season with a 15-17 record. The next time out, on the road against a Wake Forest squad that finished 10th in the ACC, the Blue Devils — six of them are now in the NBA, and Jayson Tatum is now the leading scorer for a top-tier team — trailed by 10 at the half before rediscovering their mojo and squeaking out an 85-83 victory.

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Though Duke’s home losses have been a rarity since Coach K arrived — a quarter of the seasons have ended with zero, and the program’s overall home record from the 1980-81 season through the present is 539-72 (88.2 win percentage) — the Blue Devils’ record in the first game following a home loss during this span is 44-28.

And this 61.1 win percentage is a far cry from Duke’s overall 78.0 win percentage (1,069-301) across the same time frame.

However, despite that fact and the fact that Winthrop (4-3) has already beaten a top 25 opponent on the road this season (61-59 at then-No. 18 Saint Mary’s), a few nuggets suggest the likelihood of a Duke basketball loss on Friday night is slim to none:

• The Blue Devils have only once suffered back-to-back losses at home this decade (to Notre Dame and then to Syracuse in 2016).
• The Blue Devils have not suffered back-to-back non-conference losses this century (the last time was to Stanford and then to UConn at the start of the 1999-00 campaign).
• The Blue Devils have not suffered consecutive non-conference losses at home since the 1968-69 season (to Michigan and then to East Tennessee State).

No pressure.

Stay tuned to Ball Durham for more updates, analyses, opinions, and predictions regarding all things Duke basketball.