Cal crashes Duke basketball’s top-ranked party if this happens

It’s a lot to ask of a program coming off consecutive eight-win seasons, but the next Duke basketball opponent does possess the one ingredient often most responsible for upsets over No. 1 teams.

Defensive intensity — the current Duke basketball specialty — is great and all, but heavy doses do come with potentially serious side effects.

Sure, against Cal (4-0) at the 2K Empire Classic from Madison Square Garden on Thursday — on ESPN2, 30 minutes after the conclusion of the 7 p.m. matchup between Georgetown (3-1) and No. 22 Texas (4-0), with the winners facing off on Friday 30 minutes after the conclusion of the 5 p.m. consolation game — Duke must embrace the defense that has anchored its own 4-0 start.

At the same time, though, the nation’s newly minted No. 1 team must be mindful of what can happen when facing a program that is coming off two dismal seasons and now boasts a new head coach (proven-winner Mark Fox) to direct a group of mostly forgotten dudes with both little to lose and enough sharpshooters to potentially win.

Assuming the Blue Devils do again apply 94 feet of relentless defensive pressure — so far averaging 10.5 steals and 21.0 forced turnovers — the danger arrives if perimeter defenders such as Tre Jones, Cassius Stanley, and Wendell Moore simultaneously try to jump passing lanes or take hard swipes at the ball and all come up empty.

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During such chaotic moments, such a trio for Duke could find itself out of position just long enough for the Golden Bears to find one of their golden shooting hands wide-open just beyond the arc. In other words, though Cal is susceptible to turnovers — averaging 12.3 per game against humdrum competition — the team has the weapons to make a defense pay for missing steal attempts and thereby momentarily being out of position to guard 3-point attempts.

As a team, Cal has knocked down 30 of its 66 attempts from deep (45.5 percent, the fifth-best mark in the country). Sophomore guard Matt Bradley, averaging a team-high 20.0 points largely due to a 12-for-20 3-point clip, not only has the vicious stepback move to create his own shot, but his hand seems to be most golden after pulling off such a move. Take a look:

But as for who could regularly find himself in position to light up the Blue Devils should the Cal guards create space by surviving Duke’s fullcourt pressure, enter a lumbering Aussie named Grant Anticevich, a catch-and-shoot junior big man who is thus far 7-for-13 from downtown while averaging 11.0 points and 7.3 boards. Take a look at his smooth stroke:

Including Bradley and Anticevich, the four Golden Bears who top the team’s minutes list at the moment are each averaging at least one 3-point bucket per game. So with enough help from the role players, they can potentially knock off the Blue Devils if — a big if, mind you — they are not only able to withstand Duke’s all-out pressure but also catch fire early by taking advantage of the open looks the overplaying defense might allow.

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Considering the roller-coaster shooting that the Blue Devils have shown so far this season — only 30.4 percent from beyond the arc and 64.3 percent from the charity stripe — it’s possible they would be unable to find enough in their arsenal to keep up with what would then be a red-hot Cal club feeling the dream of an upset becoming more and more believable with every minute that ticks off the clock and every 3-pointer of theirs that finds the bottom of the net.

Then again, this article is just meant to propose a what-if. To be clear, this what-if is not how Ball Durham (4-for-4 in terms of predicted outcomes for the season and only four points off Duke’s total points for the season at the moment) sees this one playing out.

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After all, this is a game inside Madison Square Garden (a.k.a., Cameron Indoor North) we’re talking about. And inside this hoops mecca, ever since Mike Krzyzewski arrived in Durham 40 years ago, Duke basketball teams are a combined 31-11 — including a season-opening victory over then-No. 3 Kansas two weeks ago and a handful of the program’s all-time most memorable wins.

Therefore, barring a barrage of 3-pointers from the Golden Bears unlike anything a Coach K team has seen lately — i.e., roughly 15 makes from deep off no more than 30 attempts — the Blue Devils should end up playing in the late game on Friday for what would be the program’s third title across four appearances at this event.

Stay tuned to Ball Durham for more updates, analyses, opinions, and predictions regarding all things Duke basketball.