With this week marking yet another Duke basketball team at No. 1, here’s a look at why such a national ranking is befitting of the program as a whole.
Kicking off my inaugural piece with Ball Durham, covering the Duke basketball program, it was only appropriate for me to do the yeoman’s work for college basketball fans across the country.
Since the game was modernized in the 1984-1985 season (NCAA Tournament expanded to 64 teams), many of fans have argued over which program is the alpha of the sport. Even more fans have quarreled over who owns the “one-and-done” era. Well…HERE. WE. GO.
Looking at the most consistent programs in the sport, otherwise deemed as the “blue-bloods”, from the 1984-1985 season (modern era) to the present, here is what I have uncovered…
- Duke: 1,005-243 (408-152 in the ACC); 5 titles, 12 Final Fours; 16 Elite Eights; 25 Sweet Sixteens
- North Carolina: 944-302 (390-171 in the ACC); 4 titles, 11 Final Fours; 17 Elite Eights; 23 Sweet Sixteens
- Kansas: 1,006-242 (437-115 in the Big 8 and Big 12); 2 titles, 9 Final Fours, 15 Elite Eights; 22 Sweet Sixteens
- Kentucky: 937-283 (439-149 in the SEC); 3 titles, 8 Final Fours, 17 Elite Eights, 22 Sweet Sixteens
What immediately jumps off the page is Kansas’ and Kentucky’s performance in conference play, especially with the Jayhawks. Kansas has seemingly had it figured out how to be an incredibly successful regular season program; however, the program’s numbers in the postseason fall short of the other three blue-bloods.
What North Carolina lacks for a punch in the regular season, and the ACC for that matter, the Tar Heels make up for with the second-best postseason resume in the modern era.
All of that said, if we are talking about pure dominance across the board, Duke has the best resume of the bunch. One win and one loss distinguish Kansas from Duke in winning percentage, but the Blue Devils have the most NCAA Championships, the most Final Fours, the second most Elite Eights, and the most Sweet Sixteens. It should be clear and obvious who has been in the best program in the modern era.
Whether you as a fan prefer an exemplary regular-season resume or dominance in the postseason, that is entirely one’s prerogative. In my opinion, there needs to be a compromise between the two to appropriately analyze a program’s success. For me, Duke and North Carolina have been the two premier programs in the sport in the modern era.
Based off the statistics above, Duke is the obvious selection, and despite North Carolina’s shortcomings in the regular season over this time frame compared to the others, one should remember that Duke and North Carolina have to play each other twice a year at the least, and they have sometimes faced each other three or four times. Imagine the win-loss differences if they were not in the same conference.
Now, what about the “one-and-done” era? While the term one-and-done is thrown around to include anybody that leaves school after their freshman year, the era actually began during the 2005-2006 season, when the National Basketball Association changed its eligibility ruling under Article X for the draft, requiring entrants to be at least one year removed from graduation prior to entering the draft (19 years old).
- Duke: 415-98 (176-62 in the ACC); 2 titles, 2 Final Fours, 5 Elite Eights, 9 Sweet Sixteens
- North Carolina: 404-118 (175-64 in the ACC); 2 titles, 4 Final Fours, 7 Elite Eights, 9 Sweet Sixteens
- Kansas: 428-91 (196-44 in the Big 12); 1 title, 3 Final Fours, 7 Elite Eights, 9 Sweet Sixteens
- Kentucky: 391-124 (174-64 in the SEC); 1 title, 4 Final Fours, 7 Elite Eights, 8 Sweet Sixteens
There are a few myths that are seemingly broken in this section, chief among them being Duke’s “failures” in the era, and Kentucky’s dominance in the era. Duke advanced to at least the Sweet Sixteen nine times, the same amount as North Carolina and Kansas, and one more than Kentucky. What the Blue Devils lack in Elite Eight appearances they make up for with the second-highest win total (both in the conference and overall), and a perfect record in the Final Four.
Kentucky, on the other hand, came in with the lowest win total of the era, despite an impressive in-conference record. Kansas again comes out on top with the highest winning percentage for the era, but falls short, like Kentucky, in championships and Final Four performances.
Again, it seemingly comes down to Duke and North Carolina as to who is the alpha of the one-and-done era. A deeper look into the conference clarifies things for the masses, in the one-and-done era, and the modern era for that matter…
Most ACC Titles in the modern era:
- Duke: 15
- North Carolina: 8
- Georgia Tech: 3
- Virginia: 2
- Wake Forest: 2
- NC State: 1
- Maryland: 1
- Florida State: 1
- Miami: 1
- Notre Dame: 1
Contrary to popular belief, the Atlantic Coast Conference’s champion is determined via the ACC Tournament — and has been since the 1961 season. It is one of the few conferences that operate this way.
While the regular season is certainly not meaningless, the expansion of the conference in 2004 with Virginia Tech and Miami, in 2005 with Boston College, in 2013 with Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, and in 2014 with Louisville (dropping Maryland), has seen the “title” lose its shine a bit with the absence of a round-robin schedule.
Debating whether a five-day tournament is the best way to determine the best team in a conference deficient of a round-robin schedule is pointless, as is claiming an “ACC title” when one is seeded #2 in the conference tournament. Generally speaking, if you are #2, you are not #1, meaning you did not win. But as the gen-z’s say, “you do you.” Sure you get a trophy, and can even hang a banner if you want, but until changed, the official title is earned through the tournament. Anyways, back to the numbers!
Most ACC Titles in the one-and-done era:
- Duke: 6
- North Carolina: 3
- Virginia: 2
- Florida State: 1
- Notre Dame: 1
- Miami: 1
I think this settles the debate, don’t you think? Not only do the Duke Blue Devils have the best modern-era resume among the blue-bloods, both in and out of conference, but they break the tie with North Carolina for the best resume in the one-and-done era with more conference titles than the Tar Heels.
Based off of the numbers, I’d rank the programs:
- Duke
- North Carolina
- Kansas
- Kentucky.
Ken Pomeroy, a notable advanced analytics guru, agrees with Duke being at the top spot, but disagrees with the remaining order, albeit his system only goes back to 1997. Based on his advanced analytics, he has it Duke, Kentucky, Kansas, North Carolina, in that order.
In his rankings, the Duke basketball program leads the way with a KenPom efficiency median of 4, due to a high ranking of 1 and the lowest ranking only being 19. The Blue Devils finished in the Top 10 on KenPom twenty times (most all-time), and have never finished outside of the Top 25 in the 23-year history of the site (tied most all-time).
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A side effect of this domination has been the creation of what the program calls the “Duke Effect.” This effect is real, and it existed long before the enigma known as Zion donned No. 1. Can you guess the common denominator for the four highest-rated NCAA National Championship games since 1999? D.U.K.E.
NCAA National Championship Viewership Since 1999:
- 2015: Duke vs. Wisconsin 28.26M
- 1999: Duke vs Connecticut 26.30M
- 2001: Duke vs Arizona 23.97M
- 2010: Duke vs Butler 23.94M
At some point, one needs to just accept the truth and face the facts: Duke Basketball is the “Behemoth of Ball.” Until next time…
Stay tuned to Ball Durham for more updates, analyses, opinions, and predictions regarding all things Duke basketball.