A sixth 2020 commitment now gives the Duke basketball recruiters what some might see as a full class, so do they still need to risk reeling in one more piece?
IMG Academy (Fla.) senior center Mark Williams announced on Friday his decision to join the Duke basketball family — fellow finalists were UCLA and Michigan — adding to what was already the nation’s No. 1 recruiting haul, per 247Sports. And the class now contains at least one player at each position.
The prior 2020 pledges are five-star point guard Jeremy Roach, five-star small forward Jalen Johnson, five-star combo guard D.J. Steward, four-star power forward Henry Coleman, and four-star power forward Jaemyn Brakefield.
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"“The goal, of course, is to win a national championship,” Williams wrote in his blog for USA Today, which came out immediately following his tweeted announcement. “So we’re already talking about how we’re gonna get it done. I know we’ll be young, but when you look at our class the question is: What don’t we have?“There’s a blend of everything and everyone is really talented. Most importantly, we already have chemistry off the court because we’re all brothers now.”"
So what else contributed to Williams choosing to become a Duke basketball player?
"“Well, the quick answer is that I felt like Duke was home and I felt like it was the best place for me to grow as a person and as a player,” he explained in his blog. “When I think back on it, the turning point when I knew that I was coming to Duke was on my official visit [last weekend]. Watching them practice and watching the films that they showed me really sold me. I really bought into The Brotherhood after I went and saw it for myself.“That’s really how it is there. Duke is a family.”"
Williams is a 7-foot-1, 225-pound four-star who ranks No. 29 on the 247Sports 2020 Composite due in part to his sound skillset on the offensive end and specialty for blocking shots on the other end.
The Virginia native — Coleman’s longtime friend and Johnson’s current roommate/teammate — is not the fastest, but he’s not the slowest. He’s not the strongest, but he’s not the weakest. Neither his mid-range shot nor his moves down low are the most refined, but they both show potential. In other words, he’s a solid presence — an emphatic finisher with a consistent motor — who should be able to contribute from Day One in Durham.
As for a Duke basketball comparison, here’s how Williams and the Duke basketball staff apparently see it:
"“When I was there for my visit, the coaches showed me a lot of Wendell Carter Jr. film because they felt like they would use me in the same way,” Williams added in his blog. “I could definitely see myself patterning my game after him because he was a guy that could do multiple things on the court.”"
While the 17-year-old younger brother of former Duke women’s basketball great Elizabeth Williams offers the Blue Devils exactly what they project to lack next season, his commitment also comes with the following conundrum:
Technically, the Duke basketball coaches now officially have more scholarship promises for the 2020-21 roster (14) than the NCAA will allow them to fulfill (13). Sure, many fans denounce this chatter, pointing out that several current underclassmen are almost certainly going to bolt after this season. But that’s not actually a certainty. News flash: That’s the definition of an assumption and pure speculation. Life happens. Plans change.
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Plus, times change — and sometimes in a flash. First, if this was the 1990’s, having six commits for the next freshman class on top of eight non-senior scholarship players on the current roster would be a serious problem.
But this isn’t the old days. We must also recognize, though, that the NCAA plans to allow student-athletes to seek out endorsements starting January 2021 — i.e., the middle of next season — which current underclassmen will no doubt be keeping an eye on. Granted, the extent of players’ abilities to profit from their names, images, and likenesses — while still keeping their college eligibility intact — remains up in the air.
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However, considering Duke basketball games land on ESPN more often than those of the average NBA team each year, it’s reasonable to think an active starter for the Blue Devils could earn more endorsement dollars — locally and nationally — than an average player for, say, the Charlotte Hornets. The same goes for pretty much all starters for blue-blood programs, so this ruling could significantly and swiftly temper the one-and-done movement and thereby change the entire landscape of college basketball.
That being said, yes, it is true that between the possible returning players next season — Alex O’Connell, Jordan Goldwire, Joey Baker, Tre Jones, Vernon Carey Jr., Matthew Hurt, Wendell Moore, and Cassius Stanley — the most likely scenario is that at least a few will be playing professionally by this time next year.
And Mike Krzyzewski and his assistants are obviously banking on that likely scenario of a few departures, so let’s go ahead and look at what else is likely needed for the 2020 class: one more big man, tops.
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Ideally, that last addition would be four-star center Hunter Dickinson, a 7-foot-2, 260-pound giant for DeMatha Catholic (Md.) who ranks No. 34 on the 247Sports Composite and, from all indications, plans to announce his decision between now and the end of the early signing period (Nov. 21).
"“One of my first calls will be to Hunter Dickinson now,” Williams noted in his blog. “I know that we can play together, and I know that we can make each other better just going head-to-head in practice every day.“[The Duke coaches] are expecting Vernon Carey Jr. to go pro and Javin DeLaurier and Jack White are seniors so we’ll need big men. I think it would be a great opportunity for both of us to play together.”"
Though Dickinson’s feet are a bit heavy — but not relative to his size — the 18-year-old has already honed old-school moves and a smooth outside shot.
Dickinson’s Crystal Ball remains foggy (the two picks that are in peg him to wind up at Michigan). And while many experts just assume the commitment from Williams will drive Dickinson to choose one of his other three finalists — Notre Dame, Michigan, and Florida State — there appear to be other factors at play other than competition for immediate playing time (e.g., a girl).
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If Dickinson does indeed reject his Duke basketball offer, then Coach K and Co. would probably seek out another post prospect. Keep in mind, though, roughly 70 percent of all the top 100 players from the 2020 class are already off the board. And there aren’t any top-100 centers who have neither already chosen a school nor named finalists (Duke is not on any of these lists).
So unless the Duke basketball coaches are able to swoop in late and land on such a list of one of the few remaining elite bigs — certainly not unprecedented for the powerhouse that is Duke basketball recruiting — they may have to find a three-star project who fits the mold of a Blue Devil.
But remember, one more commitment would translate into either at least two current non-seniors having to hit the road after this season or the rescission of 2020 offers. Harsh. But true.
Stay tuned to Ball Durham for more Duke basketball recruiting updates, analyses, opinions, and predictions.