Former Duke basketball signee giving Memphis what Coach K needs

A potent scorer who decommitted from the Duke basketball program is now giving another program exactly what the current Blue Devils need, but the pervading lesson is that making assumptions is a dangerous game.

On Monday night, a freshman combo guard named Boogie Ellis anchored a Memphis exhibition win by whipping the bottom of the net — like only the sweetest of sharpshooters regularly can — on five of his eight 3-point attempts. The former Duke basketball signee finished with 18 points, five boards, two assists, one block, one steal, and only one turnover in 25 minutes of action.

Four days prior, the 6-foot-3, 175-pound California kid and four-star recruit who ranked No. 38 on the 247Sports 2019 Composite  — who has said on several occasions that his decommitment in May was largely due to a somewhat-misleading sales pitch from the Duke basketball staff regarding the likelihood of now-sophomore point guard Tre Jones turning pro after last season — went 2-for-4 from deep.

So Ellis is now 7-for-12 (58.3 percent) from downtown while wearing a Tigers jersey. Meanwhile, over in Durham, Jones is 0-for-6 (0.00 percent) for the preseason from the same distance after going 27-for-103 (26.2 percent) last season. As a team, the Blue Devils are 6-for-41 (14.6 percent) — i.e., dismal — between the Blue-White Scrimmage and a 69-63 home exhibition win over Division II opponent Northwest Missouri State.

Granted, No. 4 Duke has a chance to turn things around on Wednesday at 7 p.m. in its final warmup before facing No. 3 Kansas at the Champions Classic from Madison Square Garden on Nov. 5.

Call it too small of a sample size to matter for both Duke and Ellis (unfortunately, the sample size is actually relatively large for Duke because the Blue Devils continue to heave way too many prayers from deep). Keep excusing last year’s squad for attempting 23.1 3-pointers per game despite only connecting on an embarrassing 30.8 percent. However you decide to look at it won’t change the harsh truth: Durham, we have a shooting problem.

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And Ellis would have, could have, and probably should have been the solution. But unfortunately, as difficult as it is to admit for this 38-year-old lifelong Duke fan who credits the game’s all-time wins leader for a sizeable chunk of his happiest childhood and adult memories, 40th-year Duke basketball head coach Mike Krzyzewski blew it on this one by seemingly assuming Jones would turn pro after last season (and maybe also for jumping in late to snatch shooting guard Cassius Stanley just two weeks prior to Ellis jumping ship).

"“Yes,” Ellis quickly and firmly responded on the same day of his decommitment announcement after Rivals’ Krysten Peek asked if it is fair to say that his decision was at all a result of Jones deciding to return to Durham for a sophomore season.“I’m just looking for the best opportunity to play the point guard. Everybody in the country knows I can score the ball. It’s about if I can run a team, get people open, and stuff like that. So [my family and I] thought it was best that I reopen my recruitment so that I can go to the best place that is going to allow me to do that.”"

No doubt Memphis is now thrilled to have him.

After Jones chose to become a sophomore, did the Duke staff try to convince Ellis he could share the backcourt as a secondary ball-handler and then take over full-time duties the next season? Probably (which would have again been a bit misleading considering nobody, probably not even Jones himself, is absolutely sure he won’t end up becoming a junior).

Did the coaches’ new pitch work? Obviously no, which might be due in part to the fact that the slasher/sharpshooter/stud had probably already lost trust in the Duke basketball recruiting machine — certainly understandable in his case.

So while many on Duke message boards have continued to question and sometimes even bash Ellis for listening to the wrong people before deciding to back out of his commitment — and for his not seizing what could have been the perfect opportunity to provide exactly what the Blue Devils lack this season — he looks to be doing just fine after taking the advice of those he trusts the most.

It seems the one who received the bad intel was Coach K when he decided to recruit his 2019 class as if Jones would no longer be around. Of course, this requirement to make early assumptions could prove to be the biggest drawback of landing so many one-and-doners every year.

The Boogie Ellis story is symbolic of a larger issue facing the Blue Devils. So to all Duke basketball fans, please consider with an open mind the following logic concerning the coaches tiptoeing the line of landing one or more 2020 commits than they will have scholarships for:

Duke’s current underclassmen could, God forbid, get hurt or fail to reach expectations and then decide coming back is their best option. Furthermore, and maybe most importantly to this argument, they may soon find out they would be able to profit from their names, images, and likenesses potentially to an unrestricted degree starting in January of next season. This would mean the more lucrative option for many of them would most definitely be staying at Duke where they would regularly be on ESPN rather than disappearing in the G-League.

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And if the above scenario played out, the Duke basketball staff most definitely could have to rescind scholarship offers and thereby seriously ding its recruiting reputation in the process.

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Stay tuned to Ball Durham for more updates, analyses, opinions, and predictions regarding all things Duke basketball.