The fact one particular freshman isn’t a preseason pick for national honors — nor a projected high draft pick — should actually boost Duke basketball optimism regarding what’s to come.
In some respects, Vernon Carey Jr. is a watered-down version of the friendly yet vicious star in Durham last season, Zion Williamson. And speaking of respect, the current Duke basketball freshman center does not garner as much as he should (which should bode well for the Blue Devils, but more on this theory to come).
Consider this: Carey Jr. and Williamson each arrived at Duke as the fifth-best college-bound recruit from his respective class, per the 247Sports Composite. Both boast big smiles. Both are left-handed bruisers with plenty of dipsy-doo and soft touch around the basket. Both sport enough finesse to handle the rock from the perimeter and just enough confidence in their micro-hop 3-pointers to warrant at least some respect from defenders.
Like Williamson was, Carey Jr. is a Preseason All-ACC Second Team selection, the second-leading vote-getter for Preseason ACC Freshman of the Year, and the popular pick to be his squad’s second-best player (like R.J. Barrett last year, Tre Jones is the only Blue Devil this season on the Preseason All-ACC First Team).
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Like Williamson, rather than symbolically support this second-best theme, Carey Jr. boldly chose to wear jersey No. 1. At the time, many fans viewed the move as a questionable one considering the extra expectations that would surely come with mimicking Zion in this regard. But maybe the newest stud in town relishes the challenge of putting his own unique stamp on the now-legendary jersey number.
Finally, like Williamson at this time year, though hype exists, Carey Jr.’s game attracts loads of underestimators for foolish reasons. After sitting out all high school showcases in the spring with a minor ankle injury, the 6-foot-10, 275-pounder — Duke Basketball Report’s Jim Sumner reported on Wednesday that the South Florida native has dropped to 255 pounds since arriving in Durham — dipped in terms of his prep ranking.
Inexplicably, Carey Jr. began plummeting on 2020 mock drafts. Nowadays, one would be hard-pressed to find any site projecting the namesake of a former NFL offensive tackle as a lottery pick. The latest, courtesy of Stadium’s Jeff Goodman on Tuesday, has the 18-year-old going No. 30 overall. NBA Draft Room says No. 25 while NBADraft.net and Draft Site put him at No. 21.
Last Friday night, during the introduction of the Duke basketball team via the 20-minute Blue-White Scrimmage at Countdown to Craziness, Carey Jr. stole the show. In leading his inferior-at-first-glance Blue squad to a 47-38 win and scoring a game-high 15 points on 7-for-10 shooting, he sure looked like a guy in line for a fruitful, lucrative pro career.
Those who tuned in watched media-driven concerns concerning Carey Jr.’s inconsistent motor go out the window. Maybe credit belongs to the Duke basketball strength and conditioning program for quickly chiseling his frame. Maybe talk of his lazy tendencies was unfounded in the first place.
Or maybe his full-of-energy vibe is a product of all the snubs from those responsible for making preseason selections and concocting mock drafts. Maybe if Carey Jr. had maintained his No. 1 ranking as a high school junior and come to Duke with outsiders pegging him as a definite future lottery pick, then he would take for granted his upcoming opportunity to cement his name in college basketball history books. Maybe he would be complacent.
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Maybe it’s a good thing that CBS Sports was too concerned with some mystery flaws of Carey Jr. to rank him any higher than No. 42 on its “Top 100 And 1” current college players. Maybe the writer who spearheaded the ranking, Matt Norlander, will look back in six months and find telling the fact that he actually forgot to point out any weaknesses in his corresponding explanation as to why Carey Jr. sits as low as No. 42:
"“Hard to gauge Carey’s impact right away for Duke. The Blue Devils have, for the past decade, largely just relied on two players for creating or sustaining offense. It doesn’t seem like that will be the case this season, but if it is, might Carey’s dominant size and power around the rim be a change of pace for Mike Krzyzewski? His ceiling feels like top 10 as a player, nationally, and his floor in the 70s. So we’re splitting it down the middle.”"
Again, Norlander, if it feels like his floor is in the 70s, why couldn’t you point out why that is? Why do you and your peers insist on claiming Carey Jr. has some obvious kryptonite while failing to explain what exactly you all think it is? I’ll wait.
Only time will tell what’s in store for the mean-when-necessary jumbo Blue Devil. However, a mega statement on a mega stage may take no time at all. After all, Carey Jr. will face arguably his toughest individual challenge of the season in Preseason Big 12 Player of the Year Udoka Azubuike — a 7-foot, 270-pound behemoth — when No. 4 Duke tips off the season against No. 3 Kansas at the Champions Classic inside Madison Square Garden on Nov. 5.
If Carey Jr. continues to use the preseason disrespect from “experts” as fuel, then he should have no problem at least holding his own against Azubuike.
And if Carey Jr. provides more reasons to warrant any type of comparisons whatsoever to Zion, then other ACC big men will run into a giant problem in the form of the guy who shouldn’t have been more than 80 votes shy of UNC’s Cole Anthony for Preseason ACC Rookie of the Year.
Stay tuned to Ball Durham for more updates, analyses, opinions, and predictions regarding the 2019-20 Duke basketball season.