Duke basketball program overdue for overachieving season

So-called Duke basketball underachievements of late suggest it’s now officially time for a season to end with the opposite narrative.

The past four Duke basketball teams combined to produce 12 draft picks, including eight lottery picks, five of whom were top three picks. Despite the insane amount of talent, those four teams averaged 8.5 losses and reached zero final fours.

In terms of losses alone, this most recent four-year stretch is the worst for Mike Krzyzewski ever since the last of those that included his 17 losses from the 1982-83 season (because the program only tallies Krzyzewski with three of the 18 losses from the 1994-95 season, in which he handed over the reigns to Pete Gaudet after the 12th game, the same count applies here).

ALSO READ: Optimism regarding Coach K retirement date

In terms of final fours, ever since Coach K reached his first in 1986, the most recent four-year stretch is one of only five such stretches without at least one final four — four of the five have come since 2005.

Putting into perspective the failure to reach or exceed expectations across the past four years, only two other four-year stretches in program history have included two preseason No. 1 rankings in the AP Poll. The first, 1988-89 thru 1991-92, ended with four final fours and two national championships. The second, 1997-98 thru 2000-01, ended with two and one, respectively.

And Duke’s average preseason ranking from the past four seasons (2.8) is tied with the stretch from 2000-01 thru 2003-04 as the program’s all-time best. Meanwhile, 9.0 is the average final ranking from the past four seasons (3.8 for 2000-01 thru 2003-04).

Granted, it’s quite a stretch to paint any stretch under college basketball’s all-time winningest coach as a failure. Plus, it’s quite the challenge for any team to exceed expectations when starting the season in the top five — an impossible feat when starting No. 1.

ALSO READ: Not buying classic Coach K promise

That being said, a total of 34 losses and zero April appearances is no doubt a Duke basketball underachievement and at least somewhat of a disappointment for four teams that boasted a combined 16 five-star recruits.

But based on Coach K’s record — and the tough-to-swallow fact that none of five-stars Zion Williamson, R.J. Barrett, Cam Reddish, Tre Jones, Marvin Bagley III, Wendell Carter Jr., Trevon Duval, Gary Trent Jr., Jayson Tatum, Harry Giles, Frank Jackson, Marques Bolden, Brandon Ingram, Luke Kennard, Derryck Thornton, and Chase Jeter have played in April — Duke seems due to reach what would be the legend’s 13th final four with a team that returns Jones and welcomes two new five-stars in Vernon Carey Jr. and Matthew Hurt.

ALSO READ: All four Duke freshmen warrant starting gigs

And based on the fact that ever since the Duke basketball program’s first One Shining Moment at the end of the 1990-91 season its rate of winning national championships has only once been worse than one in every six years — following the 2008-09 season — and such rate currently sits at one in every 5.8, Coach K’s 40th squad in Durham is due to hang what would be a sixth banner above the north end of Cameron Indoor Stadium.

Finally, based on existing preseason rankings, the Blue Devils will likely sit somewhere between No. 3 and No. 7 when the season’s first AP Poll comes out in a few weeks, meaning they may have more room to rise than in any season since 2012-13 when they started out No. 8.

In short, one way to look at all this, considering all of the above numbers paired with the fact that the past two Duke basketball teams fell only a bounce or two short of a final four, it’s once again time for the college basketball gods to give the Blue Devil his due.

Stay tuned to Ball Durham for more updates, analyses, opinions, and predictions relating to the upcoming season and all things Duke basketball.