Duke basketball: Why Coach K may be slowing down recruiting

Closer looks at the collection of Duke basketball offers, commits, and potential returnees begin to debunk the theory that the 2020 and 2021 classes each must be far deeper than average.

First, let’s examine the 2020 Duke basketball recruiting efforts in order to get a clearer picture of what the staff must currently deem an adequate goal in terms of the final number of signees.

The obvious explanation for why Mike Krzyzewski has noticeably taken his foot off the pedal a bit when it comes extending offers to 2020 prospects is that his class already consists of three five-stars — point guard Jeremy Roach, small forward Jalen Johnson, and combo guard D.J. Steward — in addition to four-star power forward Henry Coleman.

Some would argue, though, that while impressive, adding last week’s commitment from Coleman to what is more than a quarter of the nation’s 11 committed five-stars at the moment — Kentucky and UNC are the only schools with exactly two — was both necessary and still not enough to replace three outgoing seniors and early departures from up to five underclassmen.

Deciphering Duke’s moves on the recruiting trail, however, tells a slightly different story than the one coming from those fans who just assume — justifiably so when considering the program’s recent history — that a handful of underclassmen will leave Durham for the NBA each and every season.

The three-deep offer list (five-star wing Ziaire Williams plus four-star centers Mark Williams and Hunter Dickinson, who picked up his Duke offer last week) on top of the 247Sports Crystal Ball pegging the Blue Devils to land only one — Mark Williams — says the coaches see a strong possibility of several top underclassmen returning for another season. One could assume they hope to snag one or two of the above three and then tie a bow on their 2020 class (unless a certain 2021 phenom opts to reclass…more on that to come).

Likewise, the total picture from mock drafts shows this not-so-one-and-done conclusion. In addition to sophomore point guard Tre Jones, the four scholarship freshmen (center Vernon Carey Jr., power forward Matthew Hurt, small forward Wendell Moore, and shooting guard Cassius Stanley) are absent on at least one mock draft apiece. None are anywhere close to what any expert prognosticator would call a surefire lottery pick.

So it seems the Duke basketball recruiting machine is only trying to manufacture a 2020 class five or six deep rather than the seven or eight many folks expect, meaning up to three of the five aforementioned underclassmen — as well as sophomore forward Joey Baker plus junior guards Alex O’Connell and Jordan Goldwire — may very well hold off on becoming professionals for a year or more.

No issue here with that — though it would take some getting used to after the one-and-done explosion that fans have recently lived through.

Now, while we’re on the subject, let’s take a glance at what Duke’s 2021 pursuits suggest in regards to the staff’s expected number of more distant needs…