Duke basketball recruiting: Options quickly shrinking for 2020 class

The Duke basketball coaches must be wary of a rising trend that could leave them without quality choices to fill out their 2020 class.

At first glance, Duke basketball recruiting efforts are ahead of schedule in preparation for an expected mass exodus of players following next season. After all, two of the nation’s five highest-ranked 2020 prospects off the board to date — five-star point guard Jeremy Roach and five-star small forward Jalen Johnson — are Durham-bound.

At second glance, though, one potential issue becomes abundantly clear: the nation’s supply of backup options is disappearing at a record pace.

Per a tweet from Rivals’ Corey Evans on Monday, 52 recruits from the Rivals150 for the 2020 class have already committed — compared to 31 from the 2019 class at this time last year. As Evans explained, “Coaches are getting prospects onto campus earlier thanks to a change of recruiting calendar but also due to the use of junior official visits.”

Fortunately for Duke basketball head coach Mike Krzyzewski, he should have answers to four of five outstanding offers by the November signing period. And if Coach K and his staff sign each of those four targets — five-star center Walker Kessler, four-star center Mark Williams, four-star combo guard D.J. Steward, and four-star power forward Henry Coleman — then they can use the winter and spring to focus on five-star small forward Ziaire Williams and possibly one or two available three-stars.

Also encouraging, the Crystal Ball favors the Blue Devils to land all four of the aforementioned expected early deciders (Coleman took an official visit to Duke last weekend, Kessler will be on campus this weekend, Mark Williams will visit the first weekend of November, and Steward has yet to set a date but does intend to make the trip to Durham this fall).

But what happens if the Crystal Ball is wrong? And what if a couple of Duke’s expected early signees require more time and then ultimately sign with another program come April?

Unfortunately, only a handful of the Duke basketball program’s typical type of secondary targets — guys who rank between 50 and 100 on the 247Sports Composite — may still be available after November. Currently, with the fall semester barely underway, nearly half of such prospects have already committed elsewhere.

That being said, if Coach K and Co. try to get out ahead of such a potential problem by going ahead and extending offers to secondary options immediately, then they run two risks:

1. All the secondary options could commit soon after receiving said offers and end up running off Duke’s primary targets.
2. All the offers, period, could turn into commitments, and then an unexpectedly low number of Duke’s underclassmen could bolt for the NBA after next season, thereby leaving the staff with too few scholarships to fulfill its promises.

Granted, the number of Duke’s 2020 offers may prove misleading considering a few 2021 targets could end up reclassing. However, if this year’s trend continues, resulting in less than a third of 2020’s top 100 prospects being available after November, the blue-blood competition for reclass candidates next spring would likely be even fiercer than normal.

Of course, such are the issues that come with the Duke basketball staff annually pursuing truckloads of one-and-done five-stars. But the recent uptick to recruits deciding early seems to be suddenly adding to the complexity of the issues.

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