Duke basketball alum Jayson Tatum takes giant gamble

Does the potential payoff from an upcoming overseas trip outweigh the risks for one of Duke basketball’s top one-and-done products?

Not so much will be on the line for former Duke basketball center Mason Plumlee should he survive Team USA’s final cut — from 15 to 12 — leading up to the 2019 FIBA World Cup (Aug. 31 through Sept. 15 in China).

Chances are Plumlee won’t be on the final roster. But even if he is, the six-year NBA veteran — who appeared in all 82 games last season for the Denver Nuggets — won’t be a go-to guy. Therefore, he won’t be a scapegoat for the least talented Team USA since the 1980s (when only collegiate Americans took part in international competitions).

Sure, Plumlee becomes an unrestricted free agent next summer; however, it’s not as if the 29-year-old has a shot at signing a mega-contract. So a serious injury next month doesn’t have the potential to cost him tens of millions in future earnings.

The same cannot be said, though, for the other Duke basketball alum competing to land on the final roster, Boston Celtics forward Jayson Tatum.

Unlike Plumlee, Tatum appears to be a lock to make the team. Unlike Plumlee, Tatum — who tallied a scrimmage-high 17 points on Friday night — is among a handful of candidates to be the top weapon due to a truckload of bigger names deciding not to participate.

(Two of the reasons top names have dropped out are the close timing to the start of the NBA preseason and the fact that the event was postponed a year, meaning those who want to play at the 2020 Olympics would have to sacrifice back-to-back summers).

RELATED: Marvin Bagley III withdraws from Team USA consideration

As a result, Tatum could receive a sizeable chunk of the blame should he be a part of the first contingent of professional hoopsters from the United States to bring home anything less than gold since the bronze-medalists at the 2006 World Championship.

https://twitter.com/NBA/status/1160020631263559680?s=20

RELATED: Mike Krzyzewski’s absence dooms Team USA

Furthermore, Tatum is in line for a nice pay raise as a restricted free agent after next season. That being said, the amount of his next contract will heavily depend on his performance next season. In other words, if he was to suffer a serious injury next month — or exhaustion months from now as a result of his upcoming efforts — the 21-year-old’s future bank account would take a serious hit.

Coming off a sophomore campaign that included a dip to his shooting percentages from his rookie year, Tatum may not be able to afford to have tired legs.

On the other hand, the World Cup will provide the St. Louis native with three opportunities:

1. The opportunity to represent his country
2. The opportunity to build chemistry with his newest Celtics teammate, point guard Kemba Walker, who figures to be another leader for Team USA (also, Boston’s Marcus Smart and Jaylen Brown each stand a chance to make the last round of cuts; Team USA head coach Gregg Popovich has not said when he’ll decide on the roster he’ll take to China)
3. The opportunity to build confidence and come back home to a round of applause should his smooth game propel the cast of B-listers to the top of the podium

The next opportunities for Duke basketball fans to watch Tatum — and possibly Plumlee — comes via four upcoming scrimmages in California and Australia (NBA TV will broadcast them all):

• USA vs. Spain, Aug. 16, 10 p.m. EST
• USA vs. Australia, Aug. 22, 5:30 a.m. EST
• USA vs. Australia, Aug. 24, 12 a.m. EST
• USA vs. Canada, Aug. 26, 5:30 a.m. EST

Team USA’s first contest at the World Cup, which serves as a qualifier for the Tokyo Olympics next summer, comes on Sept. 1 against the Czech Republic as part of group play. Japan and Turkey are the other two countries in Group E (the top two of the four from group play will advance to the “Sweet Sixteen”).

Stay tuned to Ball Durham for more updates, analyses, opinions, and predictions concerning Jayson Tatum and other former Duke basketball players in the professional ranks.