Dissecting Duke basketball’s fluid recruitment of Terrence Clarke

Why does one elite recruit who continues confirming his interest in Duke still lack a Duke basketball offer?

Mentions of Terrence Clarke have gotten lost in the shuffle with all the overflowing Duke basketball recruiting news since Peach Jam wrapped up 11 days ago.

After noticing the five-star highlight reel’s name never pop up during Mike Krzyzewski’s recent offer spree — post-Peach Jam, three to 2020 prospects and two of the 2021 variety — many have just assumed Clarke is no longer a part of the 72-year-old’s future plans.

But the reclass-candidate shooting guard out of Brewster Academy in Boston certainly appears worthy of a Blue Devil offer.

Clarke ranks No. 3 among his 2021 peers on the 247Sports Composite and has earned the tag as “a potential No.1 pick in the draft.” The 6-foot-7, 185-pound spider-limb phenom boasts arguably the best set of handles of any teen on the planet. The key ingredient to his explosive game, though, is the way he always has his momentum pushing forward in attack mode, never allowing defenders to breathe:

And Clarke — whose only noticeable weakness is an outside shot requiring some tweaking — never hides his desire for a Duke offer.

Naturally, some fans are left to think Coach K’s inactivity either makes no sense or suggests he has found a flaw in Clarke that is scaring him off.

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Think again.

The legend and his staff seem to simply have a dilemma that is temporarily blocking their pursuit of Clarke. And patience may be the only solution.

First, the Duke coaches already hold commitments from two 2020 five-stars — small forward Jalen Johnson and point guard Jeremy Roach — and have already given offers to seven other 2020 targets, four of whom the 247Sports Crystal Ball favors Duke to snag.

Plus, the staff can’t know for sure how many of the incoming freshmen this year — as well as sophomore Tre Jones — will be NBA players by this time next year. The anticipation is at least three underclassmen will bolt, which would leave the 2020-21 roster with five or less returning scholarship players and thereby necessitate one of the program’s deepest recruiting classes to date.

But what if — not a likely scenario, but the staff still has to consider it — all four freshmen and Jones decide to return, thereby leaving only enough space for one or two more 2020 commits?

In a nutshell, the coaches have to walk the fine line between securing the necessary talents to be at Duke the season after next and finding themselves in a pickle from hearing too many yesses to their extended offers.

• If they hand Clarke an open-ended offer and he remained in his current class, then his commitment to Duke would be nothing but a blessing.
• If they hand him an open-ended offer and he decides to reclass, then the offer could come across as the coaches disrespecting four-star combo guard D.J. Steward and five-star wing Ziaire Williams — the latest two 2020 targets to receive Duke offers.
• If Steward and Williams opted to go elsewhere because of the above scenario, and then if Clarke decided to commit to another program, the Duke staff would be left scrambling for some less-ideal option to fill the two-guard hole in their 2020 class.
• If the Blue Devils hand Clarke an offer but tell him it is only valid for 2021, then they risk unnecessarily upsetting the kind of kid who could be the overriding reason for Duke winning another national championship; same goes for if they told him to hurry up and decide on a class.

So what seems to be the most likely path for Clarke?

Well, he will be 18 years old in about six weeks. Doing the math, if he decided to stay put in his current class, he’d be 20 before his freshman season, meaning he’s more than likely going to either eventually reclass to 2020 or bypass college altogether (he could potentially successfully petition to go straight from high school to the 2021 NBA Draft in the same manner undrafted Jalen Lecque did this year).

Clarke, who holds 26 offers, seems fully aware of his options.

"“I’m kind of looking through the pros and cons of [reclassing],” he told 247Sports Evan Daniels this week. “Because now that it’s been out there and it’s been looked at and I’ve said that I possibly can, it’s more just how I can fit into the 2020 class and what I would look like that next year in the NBA draft trying to be a one-and-done…trying to be patient…“Just seeing how everything moves out because I don’t want to be rushing into the NBA where I probably wouldn’t work out. Right now I’m looking through the pros and cons of it, but it’s definitely a possibility for sure.”"

And even without a Duke basketball offer in hand, Clarke is forthcoming about his interest in the Blue Devils — the four entered picks inside his Crystal Ball have Duke and Kentucky in a dead heat (he does have a Kentucky offer).

His mom is apparently encouraging his interest in the elite university in Durham.

"“I think Memphis, my mom says Duke,” he said in response to Daniels’ question about where he most wants to visit in the fall. “The five schools I really want to visit are probably Duke, Kentucky, Memphis, Auburn, and UCLA.”"

Two morals to this story:

1. Coach K must wait a bit and see how things play out.
2. Kids should always listen to their moms.

ALSO READ: The four 2020 targets who look to be Durham-bound

Stay tuned to Ball Durham for more Duke basketball recruiting updates, analyses, opinions, and predictions.