Duke basketball: Potential trainwreck awaits Coach K

The Duke basketball coaches must take the proper precautions now in order to avoid what could be a major disaster just around the corner.

Talk of three-star recruits doesn’t typically excite Duke basketball fans. But it should at the moment.

By not hauling in right away at least a few players who accept the fact their NBA dreams are more like pipe dreams, a scenario exists where the number of returning scholarship Blue Devils on the 2021-22 roster will make it look as if the Blue Devils are coming off four years of no-scholarships-allowed probation.

Zilch.

Though such a count is not likely, it’s not as improbable as one might think.

Remember, the one-and-done rule is set to end in 2022. Therefore, the 2022 NBA Draft will be the first-ever double-up draft — in that the one-and-done freshmen from the 2021 class will have to compete for draft position against 2022’s elite who take advantage of their freedom to bypass college altogether.

And what this means is any 2020 recruits on the fence about whether to bolt for the NBA after one season would be ill-advised to hold out another year. Simply put, the 2021 NBA Draft will be far less competitive than the one that follows.

As a result, one could assume all the 2020 five-stars and high four-stars who sign with Duke will leave after the 2020-21 season (the class currently consists of five-star small forward Jalen Johnson, a surefire one-and-done, and five-star point guard Jeremy Roach, a strong one-and-done candidate; the six offers still on the table are to three five-stars in addition to three four-stars, each with a legit chance to soon pick up the fifth star).

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The allure of the 2021 NBA Draft also means that even if any of the four incoming scholarship freshmen this season — all are four- and five-stars — do stick around to become sophomores, they almost certainly won’t become juniors.

Also, by the 2021-22 season, guards Alex O’Connell and Jordan Goldwire will have graduated. Same goes for Mike Buckmire, who earned a scholarship for next season after serving as a walk-on guard for two years.

Plus, those fans with a pipe dream of rising sophomore point guard Tre Jones still being in Durham as a senior can go ahead and wake up now.

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So is the worst-case scenario that Joey Baker, a sophomore wing next season, serves as the only returning scholarship player the season following the season after next?

Well, if the pessimists are correct in their speculation that Baker transfers out of Duke this year — Ball Durham doesn’t believe he will — as stated above, the number of returning scholarship players could be zero (also not out of the question is Baker turning pro prior to his senior season).

ALSO READ: Time to hush chatter about a Joey Baker transfer

Whether the number of returning players on the 2021-22 roster figured to be zero or even as many as two, Mike Krzyzewski — assuming the now-72-year-old hasn’t retired by that time — would have to compile a 2021 recruiting class that is double-figures deep.

And Duke basketball fans think snatching up seven to eight guys from the 2020 class is a tall order?

Looks like what is already a heavy recruiting workload for Coach K and Co. is only becoming more daunting. The coaches made their bed, though, with years of one-and-done-caliber recruits. So they’ll just have to figure out a way to sleep in it prior to the transition year from the one-and-done era to the none-and-done era.

It sure seems about time to reel in some quality three-stars to develop over time.

Before time runs out.

ALSO READ: Duke staff notices a criminally underrated three-star

Next. Three reasons Duke wins natty next season. dark

Stay tuned to Ball Durham for more Duke basketball recruiting updates, analyses, opinions, and predictions.

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