Duke Basketball: History says one rival’s title chances end Saturday

While it seems logical that the title chances of both the Duke basketball team and UNC will remain intact regardless of the outcome of the next game, historical data suggests otherwise.

Those Duke basketball fans — you know who you are — downplaying the importance of the regular season finale on Saturday at 6 p.m. evidently need a history lesson.

First and foremost, when No. 4 Duke (26-4; 14-3 in ACC) plays at No. 3 UNC (25-5; 15-2 in ACC), you will hear the word “rivalry” every five seconds throughout the telecast on ESPN. That word will accompany phrases like “college basketball’s greatest” and “two schools separated by just eight miles” — the combination of just these words alone is reason enough to refrain from ever downplaying the importance of such a game.

This game will mark the 250th between the two programs.

But there are two other historical reasons that this game, in particular, has added weight.

The less significant of the two is that the Blue Devils — after losing the first round, 88-72, at home on Feb. 20 — are at risk of no longer holding the series advantage since coach Mike Krzyzewski arrived in Durham for the 1980-81 season (entering this game, Duke is 46-45 against UNC since his arrival, albeit Krzyzewski was not on the sidelines for either of the Blue Devils’ losses during the 1994-95 season).

As for the most important reason that Saturday’s outcome matters — with respect to history — neither program has ever won the national championship in the same season as losing the regular season finale. Adding to the significance of that fact, this game has a streak of serving as the regular season finale for both programs every season dating back exactly to the first season that either of the schools won a national championship.

That year was 1957 — disregarding a 1924 championship banner hanging in the Dean Dome that is as artificial as some infamous past classes at UNC.

So the Tar Heels have amassed six legit — well, not so legit when considering players were often enrolled in bogus classes, meaning at least a couple banners should come down — national titles (’57, ’82, ’93, ’05, ’09, ’17). And all of those seasons have coincided with a win over the Blue Devils in the regular season finale.

Meanwhile, the Blue Devils have amassed five national titles (’91, ’92, ’01, ’10, ’15). And all of those seasons have coincided with a win over the Tar Heels in the regular season finale.

Coincidence?

Possibly.

Worth not risking a loss?

Absolutely.

What is one possible explanation for this streak of 11 titles between the programs without the loser of this game ever winning one?

With postseason play immediately following this game, pain from losing — as well as confusion over how to quickly and fully recover — has possibly proven too much to overcome in the time allowed.

But the explanation as to why the outcome of this game has such a profound impact on the chances of the winner and loser winning on a Monday night in April isn’t as important as the explanation that it evidently does have such an impact.

So no matter how painful it may be to accept that UNC may escape the regular season having only faced Zion Williamson for a total of 33 seconds — the freshman, who suffered a knee sprain on the Blue Devils’ first possession of the rivals’ first meeting, has not yet been ruled out for Saturday — there’s no time for the players to use the excuse of being without the college game’s best player.

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If Williamson does not play, Duke cannot afford its performance to resemble its lackluster performance from its 71-70 escape at home on Tuesday over lowly Wake Forest.

And if Williamson does play, the Tar Heels — winners of six straight and 13 of their past 14 — will not afford the Blue Devils time to rebuild their chemistry with the soon-to-be No. 1 draft pick back in the rotation for the first time since the first 33 seconds of the rivals’ first meeting.

Whether or not Williamson plays, though, history says he and his fellow soon-to-be one-and-doners — R.J. Barrett, Cam Reddish, and probably Tre Jones — won’t finish their brief careers at Duke on a winning note without the Blue Devils first winning on Saturday.

So take note of history, Duke fans, before taking to social media to proclaim that some game doesn’t much matter.

And check your pulse — or consider handing over your Blue Devil Fan Card — if you seriously believe any game against UNC, no matter when it happens, isn’t of the utmost importance.