Just one more loss to UNC this season may be all it takes to prevent the Duke basketball program from entering the NCAA Tournament as a No. 1 seed for the first time since 2015 and 14th time in history.
March Madness technically starts tomorrow, but Selection Sunday is still 17 days away. And with three regular season games and a conference tournament remaining for most every team in the nation, so much can happen between now and then that it’s a bit premature to start discussing all the possible scenarios for the Duke basketball team to earn a No. 1 seed for the Big Dance.
The obvious definite path? Win out.
But to make some sense of how the race for the four No. 1 seeds could play out — with the fewest words possible — as many as 10 teams still remain in the race, but six teams seem to control their own destiny: No. 1 Gonzaga (27-2; 14-0 in WCC), No. 2 Virginia (25-2; 13-2 in ACC), No. 3 Duke (24-4; 12-3 in ACC), No. 4 Kentucky (24-4, 16-1 in SEC), No. 5 UNC (23-5; 13-2 in ACC), and No. 7 Tennessee (25-3; 13-2 in SEC).
In other words, each of those six teams would almost certainly obtain a No. 1 seed by going undefeated between now and March 17.
Wait, how can six teams control their own destiny for only four spots?
All six can’t win out, because four of the six teams must play at least one more game against one of the other six — Kentucky plays at Tennessee this Saturday, and Duke plays at UNC the following Saturday. On top of that fact, each conference can only have one tournament champion — duh — and five of the six teams are in a conference that includes at least one of the other six.
But back to the next Duke-UNC game.
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First, chances are both the Blue Devils and Tar Heels will take care of business between now and March 9 — Duke hosts Miami and Wake Forest while UNC plays at Clemson and at Boston College. And if that is the case, Round 2 of the rivalry — assuming Virginia wins its final three games — will determine which team enters the ACC Tournament as the No. 2 seed (with the loser as the No. 3 seed).
Even if Duke wins in the Dean Dome, though, that may not be enough to cement its place on the top line of one of the four regions in the NCAA Tournament. After all, Gonzaga and Virginia would likely account for two of the spots — even if Virginia loses a game in the ACC Tournament — and a third could go to whoever wins the remaining battle(s) between Kentucky and Tennessee.
(No matter what, the NCAA selection committee is not likely to give three No. 1 seeds to the ACC.)
That means the other remaining No. 1 seed could potentially go to whoever wins the potential Round 3 — what would be the tiebreaker — between Duke and UNC, which would take place in the semifinal of the ACC Tournament.
Conclusion: If Duke’s record against UNC does not finish at either 1-1 or 2-1, there may be no No. 1 seed in 2019 for the Blue Devils. Here’s another way to look at it: Duke won’t likely like its chances to be a No. 1 seed — not to mention it not liking the fact that it could be largely responsible for its rival securing a No. 1 seed — if it loses just one more game to UNC.
Best solution: The return of freshman forward Zion Williamson — the best player in the country remains day-to-day after suffering a Grade 1 knee sprain on the Blue Devils’ first possession of an 88-72 home loss to the Tar Heels on Feb. 20 — before March 9.