Duke Basketball: Blue Devils must avoid 3-point contest to beat Cavaliers

If the Duke basketball team is to knock off Virginia, its offense must resemble more of a dunk contest than a 3-point contest.

The last time the Duke basketball players faced Virginia — a 72-70 home win on Jan. 19 — they employed a second-half strategy on offense that the Cavaliers never proved they could stop.

The Blue Devils used an abundance of isolation drives — attempting only four 3-pointers after the break and only one in the final 15 minutes — to crack the code of the Cavaliers’ vaunted pack-line defense.

So when No. 2 Duke (20-2; 8-1 ACC) plays at No. 3 UVA (20-1; 8-1 ACC) at 6 p.m. Saturday on ESPN, there is no sensible reason not to embrace that same strategy from the opening tip — at least until Virginia proves it can stop it.

That is the key to the game.

One stat that is likely to be different this time around, however, is the percentage of makes from downtown by the Cavaliers (3-for-17, or 17.6 percent, in the first meeting). For the season, Virginia is shooting 39.5 percent from beyond the arc (ranks 15th in the country); across nine conference games, despite the Duke game, that percentage is an ACC-best 40.0.

During the second matchup, expect the 3-ball to be much kinder to Kyle Guy and Co. — UVA’s top three scorers are all shooting better than 40 percent from outside for the season.

And if the Cavaliers do have a hot hand from deep early — seems likely in front of their home crowd — the Blue Devils must avoid the temptation of trying to match it; put mildly, the 3-point shot is far from being Duke’s specialty (its 30.8 percentage ranks 316th nationally), yet the Blue Devils are jacking up 24.4 attempts per game, which is on pace to be the second-highest average in program history.

While the team has been able to recover from a slew of slow starts as of late — which have been against inferior opponents and largely due to excessive 3-point attempts in the opening minutes while all but ignoring its strength of driving — it may not be able to recover from such a start against the Wahoos.

Not only is Duke basically dismal at outside shooting, but Virginia boasts the nation’s best 3-point defense (opponents are hitting just 24.8 percent for the season). And since UVA is genius at forcing a slow tempo when that tempo is to its benefit, the chance that Duke could bounce back from a sizeable early deficit is slim.

The best way (and maybe the only way) for the Blue Devils to ensure the game stays close and to ultimately beat the Cavaliers is for their four freshmen starters — Zion Williamson, Cam Reddish, R.J. Barrett, and Tre Jones — to attack the rim. Non-stop. Every possession.

At least until Virginia proves able to contain it.

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Williamson was far too powerful in the paint — especially when posterizing Jay Huff — for the Cavaliers to contain the first time around. Barrett was far too magical at finishing off the glass. Reddish was far too sensational at drawing fouls. And Jones — who did not play in the first meeting due to his shoulder injury — has a soft touch on his floaters, which he has not utilized enough this season.

The only time that the Blue Devils should attempt a 3-pointer is from a kick-out after driving to the basket (only when the paint is simply too crowded to execute a finish). Lately, the players have far too often been passing the ball around the perimeter to start possessions, seemingly trying to find the open shooter — such a strategy against Virginia will likely only result in misses or turnovers.

Minimal passing was required to penetrate UVA’s defense in the second half of the first matchup. And that may also be the simple solution in the second matchup.

In other words, the Blue Devils should not play into the hands of the Cavaliers’ defense by allowing opportunities for intercepted passes and misses from deep.

Just drive.

Next. Will R.J. Hampton be Duke's PG next season?. dark

It sounds like a simple plan. But it also sounds like the winning plan.

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