Duke Basketball: What if Kyrie Irving had chosen UNC over Duke?

If Boston Celtics star Kyrie Irving had decided to become a Tar Heel, would the Duke basketball program still be in the midst of a one-and-done era?

What-ifs, by their very nature, are purely speculative; the most thought-provoking ones, though, are always fun to consider. And former Duke basketball point guard Kyrie Irving offered up a doozy on Friday night.

The current Boston Celtics star spoke to reporters after his team’s preseason loss to the Charlotte Hornets at the Dean E. Smith Center on the University of North Carolina’s campus and mentioned that he had once considered becoming a Tar Heel.

"“When I was in high school, there was a time where me and coach (Roy) Williams had a talk and there was a possible Harrison Barnes and Kyrie Irving package deal that was going to happen,” Irving said. “But it just never did. It never worked, and I ended up going to Duke.”"

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And what ended up happening for Duke after Irving left — he only played in 11 games as a Blue Devil after suffering a toe injury that kept him on the bench most of the season — was the construction of an expressway that connected likely one-and-done high school prospects directly to Durham.

While there is no doubt that Irving’s existence played a role in Duke becoming a one-season destination for so many of the nation’s top recruits, there have been other factors at play — namely, the rule that required all high school players to either play one college season or be at least 19 years old in order to enter the NBA, the impact of Duke basketball coach Mike Krzyzewski’s time in charge of Team USA, and the recruiting skills of former assistant Jeff Capel.

But before this decade, Coach K had said that he would never recruit a player who only intended to stick around for one season. Corey Maggette, in 1999, and Luol Deng, in 2004, were the only one-and-done players for Duke prior to 2010, but supposedly neither told the coaching staff in Durham during the recruiting process that their intention was to enter the NBA after their freshman years.

Then Irving came along, and he appeared to be the spark that ignited Krzyzewski’s all-hands-on-deck recruitment of teenagers who made no secret of their goal to be in a position to use their craft to become instant millionaires after a one-year layover on a college campus.

So what if Irving had instead joined Barnes — a two-year player for UNC and current Dallas Mavericks forward — and become a Tar Heel?

Well, first of all, the 2010-11 UNC team would have received a boost. But no Duke basketball fan wants to read details about that.

So, moving on, the lack of Irving in Durham might have — again, all what-ifs spawn speculative answers — led to the Blue Devils repeating as national champions. The duo of then-seniors Kyle Singler and Nolan Smith had led that team for a huge chunk of the season — which followed Duke’s 2010 title — as the players learned to adapt without Irving (his injury had taken place in just the eighth game of the season).

On the backs of Singler and Smith, the squad entered the 2011 NCAA Tournament with an impressive 30-4 overall record — including a 75-58 win over UNC to win the ACC Tournament.

But then Irving returned from his injury at the start of the Big Dance, and it became apparent that the on-the-floor chemistry that Singler and Smith had spent the season trying to build needed some tweaking after the reinsertion of Irving into the lineup. Before the Blue Devils could make all the pieces gel, though, they suffered a season-ending 93-77 loss to Arizona in the Sweet Sixteen.

So if Irving had been playing in Chapel Hill all season and had not inadvertently disrupted the rhythm of Duke just as it was entering the win-or-the-season-ends time of March, would it have been to the advantage of the Blue Devils?

No one will ever know, but it’s certainly not too far-fetched to think so.

And what about the future one-and-done talents who followed in Irving’s footsteps by choosing to play at Duke?

Would so many — 13 so far after Irving, with at least three more being all but certain from the 2018-19 squad — have committed to the Blue Devils had Irving, a five-time NBA All-Star and one-time NBA Champion, not helped further popularize the program’s brand?

Would Coach K have given up on recruiting them altogether had Irving rejected his offer in favor of Williams?

Would Ol’ Roy — who has only had two one-and-done players during his 15 years as head coach at UNC — have landed more one-and-done recruits, thereby turning his program into a popular one-and-done destination?

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Irving’s quote on Friday night provided plenty of material for any fans who are fascinated with the phenomenon often referred to as the butterfly effect. That being said, this Duke basketball fan will always be thankful for Irving flapping his wings in Durham for a year — even if it didn’t end with Duke being the last team standing — and then acting like a true Dukie by publicly displaying nothing but love for the program ever since.

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