How Does Duke Score?
By David Levine
Nov 22, 2011; Lahaina, HI, USA; Duke Blue Devils guard Seth Curry (30) reacts making a three pointer against the Michigan Wolverines during the EA Sports Maui Invitational at the Lahaina Civic Center. Duke defeated Michigan 82-75. Mandatory Credit: Brian Spurlock-USA TODAY Sports
The Duke men’s basketball team has a reputation for focusing particularly on the 3pt shot. Putting aside the merits of such a strategy, is there any truth to that reputation? How does Duke’s offense compare to those of other teams? I will not be able to answers those questions definitively. However, I will be able to tell you how Duke’s offense has compared to UNC’s over the last 10 seasons. The following chart and graph show how Duke’s points scored have been distributed across shot type. They do not show shot attempts broken down by shot type or shooting percentages.
| Year | 3pt Point % | 2pt Point % | FT Point % | |
2013 | 29.2% | 49.7% | 21.2% | 100.1% |
2012 | 31.3% | 45.7% | 23.1% | 100.1% |
2011 | 29.2% | 50.1% | 20.8% | 100.1% |
2010 | 29.3% | 48.5% | 22.2% | 100.0% |
2009 | 27.9% | 49.1% | 23.0% | 100.0% |
2008 | 32.7% | 46.4% | 21.0% | 100.1% |
2007 | 25.6% | 53.7% | 20.7% | 100.0% |
2006 | 28.1% | 48.3% | 23.6% | 100.0% |
2005 | 33.7% | 43.6% | 22.7% | 100.0% |
2004 | 26.7% | 51.1% | 22.2% | 100.0% |
AVG | 29.4% | 48.6% | 22.1% | |
VAR | 0.0653% | 0.0826% | 0.0112% |
Over the past 10 seasons, 29.4% of Duke’s points have come from 3pt field goals, 48.6% from 2pt field goals, and 22.1% from free throws. As a point of comparison, in 2013, Duke scored 29.2% of its points on 3pt field goals, the 4th highest percentage in the ACC, behind Boston College, Miami, and North Carolina. Nationally, no team scored more than 38.7% of its points on 3pt field goals last season. At least by this standard, the 2013 Duke squad did overly depend on the 3pt shot when compared to other teams. Over the past 10 years, the Duke offense has mostly maintained the same balance of point distribution across shot types. Duke was most dependent on the 3pt shot in 2008, when it scored 32.7% of its points on 3pt field goals. The team was least dependent on the three pointers in 2007, when it scored 25.6% of its points that way.
These numbers do not take into account the efficiency with which points were scored. Without more information, we would not know how well Duke shot from 3, 2, or from the line. However, these numbers tell us something about the framework of Duke’s strategy. Given Duke’s success (particularly on offense), we know that Duke has been an efficient offensive team, so Duke’s 3pt point % is not simply an offensive gimmick. In a general sense, we know that Duke prioritizes the 3pt shot and takes advantage of free throws. However, we did not need new information to know this. Coach K talks openly about his offensive philosophy. Fortunately, this new information will allow us to directly compare Duke’s point distribution to UNC’s. Is it true that Duke has been more dependent on the 3pt shot than UNC has?
| Year | 3pt Point % | 2pt Point % | FT Point % |
2013 | 29.5% | 54.4% | 16.0% |
2012 | 18.8% | 60.8% | 20.3% |
2011 | 19.9% | 59.6% | 20.6% |
2010 | 19.1% | 60.6% | 20.2% |
2009 | 23.2% | 55.1% | 21.7% |
2008 | 18.8% | 59.9% | 21.4% |
2007 | 19.8% | 59.7% | 20.5% |
2006 | 26.2% | 52.7% | 21.1% |
2005 | 25.5% | 52.3% | 22.2% |
2004 | 23.7% | 55.4% | 20.9% |
| Avg | 22.5% | 57.1% | 20.5% |
| Var | 0.1406% | 0.1148% | 0.0289% |
Yes, Duke has been more dependent on the 3pt shot than UNC has. Over the last 10 years, UNC has scored only 22.5% of its points on 3pt field goals and 57.1% of its points on 2pt field goals. Duke has scored 31% (percentage difference of percentages) more of its points on 3pt field goals than UNC has, a considerable difference. UNC has been much more prone to focusing on 2 pointers. Duke’s distribution is slightly more shifted to free throws than UNC’s is, but this is not the key difference. Interestingly, there has been more variance in UNC’s point distribution than there has been in Duke’s. Basically, UNC’s year-to-year fluctuations have been greater. This past season, UNC scored 29.5% of its points on 3 pointers. The year before, UNC scored only 18.8% of its points on 3 pointers. In several seasons, UNC has scored a higher percentage of its points from free throws than from 3’s. Duke has not done this a single time in the last 10 seasons.
Once again, I’m not trying to say anything drastic about Duke’s offensive strategy. Nor am I trying to diminish a particular offensive strategy. Both UNC and Duke have been strong offensively over the past 10 seasons. However, there is merit to the idea that Duke is more focused on the 3pt shot than are other teams, in this case UNC. Since Duke’s variances have been less extreme than UNC’s, you might be able to make the argument that Duke’s offensive philosophy has been more consistent than UNC’s. Although I have not definitively proven this (this would require a lot more data and of different types), it is something to think more about.