NCAA Basketball Preseason Top 10

Apr 8, 2013; Atlanta, GA, USA; LLouisville Cardinals guard Kevin Ware cuts down the net after winning the championship game of the 2013 NCAA mens Final Four against the Michigan Wolverines at the Georgia Dome. Louisville Cardinals won 82-76. Mandatory Credit: Peter Lockley/NCAA Photos via USA TODAY Sports

1. Louisville
•Last Season’s Record: 35-5
•Postseason: National Champs over Michigan
•Expected Starting Five: Chris Jones, Russ Smith, Luke Hancock, Chane Behanan, Montrezl Harrell.
•Key Reserves: Wayne Blackshear, Kevin Ware, Stephan Van Treese, Terry Rozier.

No, I am not ranking Louisville number one just because they won it all last year. Louisville returns a very talented team, with the experience and knowledge of how to win on the biggest stage. Louisville lost their leader and point guard, Peyton Siva, but he is replaced well by Chris Jones, Terry Rozier, and Kevin Ware. Gorgui Dieng, their center and rim protector, is also gone but will be replaced by Montrezl Harrell and Stephan Van Treese. After Siva and Dieng, the rest of the National Championship team returns for another run. If Kevin Ware can return from his horrific injury, their backcourt will have even more depth than last season, with the ability to go six deep between point guard, shooting guard and small forward. That depth will allow them to use their press even more effectively. With Russ Smith returning, he will be able to lead the backcourt in scoring and in their pressure defense. Louisville’s front court may lack scoring, but they will rebound the ball amazingly starting with their power forward Chane Behanan. Harrell and Van Treese did not play significant minutes in the NCAA Tournament run, but they have proved they are valuable rebounders and can take over Dieng’s role on the team. The player that can really carry Louisville with a breakout season is Luke Hancock. Hancock emerged in the NCAA tournament and won Final Four MVP, scoring atleast 20 points in both Final Four games. Hancock looked like a real difference maker, and was a huge reason why Louisville was able to beat Michigan in the National Championship. Louisville has a deep, talented and Championship tested team. It will obviously be very tough to be a repeat champion, but Louisville definitely has the ability to do it.

2. Kentucky
•Last Season’s Record: 21-12
•Postseason: Loss NIT First Round to Robert Morris
•Expected Starting Five: Andrew Harrison, Aaron Harrison, Alex Poythress, Julius Randle, Willie Cauley-Stein.
•Key Reserves: James Young, Dakaki Johnson, Kyle Wiltjer, Marcus Lee.

Coach Calipari once again pulled in another amazing recruiting class that allows him to compete for another National Championship, after a down year. His challenge will be to take another extremely talented, but new, team and lead them on another run. Most people rank Kentucky as their number one, but there are a lot of potential flaws that could emerge in this team. The Harrison brother back court plays well together, but they can take too many bad shots at times. Alex Poythress is also very talented, but lacks the aggressiveness to take over games. Willie Cauley-Stein played well in Nerlens Noel’s absence, but is still very raw. For all the potential flaws, this team has extreme talent, and that begins with Julius Randle. Julius Randle has the ability to carry this young team with his athleticism, rebounding, and scoring. This team may have a lot of questions, but they have an insane amount of potential. If this team can mesh and play well as a team, they could be unstoppable. This team has much more pure talent then last years team and will definitely play better as a team. The thing that will determine if they will win a Championship, is if they can show the selflessness that the 2012 showed. Anthony Davis and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Kentucky’s two stars, took much smaller roles offensively in order to help the team win. If this team gets on a roll and shows that selflessness, there is not a team in the country that can beat them.

3. Duke
•Last Season’s Record: 30-6
•Postseason: Lost Elite Eight to Louisville
•Expected Starting Five: Quinn Cook, Rasheed Sulaimon, Rodney Hood, Jabari Parker, Marshall Plumlee.
Key Reserves: Tyler Thorton, Andre Dawkins, Amile Jefferson, Alex Murphy.

I may be a little biased, but I think Duke is just as good as any team in the country. Duke may lack size, but they make up for it with their athleticism and scoring. Coach K will not be able to play the same style as last year, where Duke played a much slower, post oriented offense. This year, Coach K will get to institute his own form of the US Olympic gold metal team. He will rely on Dukes athleticism and depth to wear teams down. Coach K has already mentioned taking some of Coach Pitino strategy from last season and using more press defense. Duke will be reliant on their top group of talent to succeed this season. Quinn Cook and Rasheed Sulaimon will look to improve on their break out years from last year. The two players that will ultimately decide Duke’s success are Rodney Hood and Jabari Parker. Rodney Hood had to sit out last season due transferring rules, after transferring to Duke from Mississippi St. Rodney Hood was well hyped by Duke coaches throughout the year for his great play at practice and hard work. Hood will look to join the extremely talented freshman Jabari Parker as the best forward combination in the country. Parker has been compared to Carmelo Anthony and Paul Pierce, and if he can play close to as well as they did in college, Duke will be very pleased. If the top four players play to their abilities and a post player can emerge, Duke can beat any team in the country. Duke may not have the complete talent that Kentucky or Louisville has, but they may have the best “Big Four” in the country. If Duke can rally around that group and the rest of the team steps up, the NCAA Championship could be heading to Durham for a fifth time.

4. Michigan
•Last Season’s Record: 31-8
•Postseason: Lost National Championship to Louisville
•Expected Starting Five: Spike Albrecht, Nik Stauskus, Glenn Robinson, Jon Horford, Mitch McGary.
•Key Reserves: Caris LeVert, Jordan Morgan, Derrick Walton, Zak Irvin.

Michigan may struggle to replace the star power it had in National Player of the Year, Trey Burke, but they will still be an awesome team. The key to them returning as a great team was the emergence of Glenn Robinson and Mitch McGary. Mitch McGary had an amazing NCAA Tournament, in which he really showed his true potential. After his amazing tournament run, many people expected McGary to enter the NBA Draft, but he decided to return for another year. More responsibilities will be placed on McGary and Robinson, due to the loss of Burke and Tim Hardaway Jr. They look ready for the challenge and will be able to step up their games. Guard Spike Albrecht also proved his potential in the NCAA Championship, with 17 points in the first half. Michigan may not have the star power of many other top teams, but they have a lot of very good talent. If Michigan can grow as a team, they could return to the National Championship and win this time. John Beilein proved that he can coach and has a championship caliber team. This season may be the one where Beilein pushes his team over the edge and wins his first National Championship.

5. Kansas
•Last Season’s Record: 31-6
•Postseason: Lost Sweet Sixteen to Michigan
•Expected Starters: Naadir Tharpe, Wayne Selden, Andrew Wiggins, Perry Ellis, Joel Embiid.
•Key Reserves: Tarik Black, Jamari Traylor, Connor Frankamp.

Kansas was a talented team but, with the recent commitments of Andrew Wiggins and Tarik Black, they are now a true contender. Andrew Wiggins was one of the last top recruits to announce their decision. For Kansas, it was well worth the wait. For a team that lost every starter from last season, they will be extremely talented once again. They return two key reserves, Naadir Tharpe and Perry Ellis, who will look to start this season. They are both good players, but are not potential stars for the team. Likely to start with them are top recruits; Wayne Selden, Joel Embiid, and Andrew Wiggins. Both Selden and Embiid both look like good players, but again do not appear to be stars. For Kansas to really succeed, Wiggins will have to emerge as a true star. Luckily for Kansas, Wiggins looks like he will be a real star. He is already projected to go number one overall in the 2014 NBA Draft. He has superior athleticism and finishing ability. He will need to improve his half court scoring ability and defense, but he has the ability to be a first team All American. Kansas will more then likely win the Big 12 again this season, which will lead them to a high seed in the NCAA Tournament. The deciding factor in this teams success will be if the players around Wiggins will step up. I think Kansas will be a contender all year, but I do not see them winning the NCAA Tournament.

6. Arizona
•Last Season’s Record: 27-8
•Postseason: Lost Sweet Sixteen to Ohio State
•Expected Starting Five: TJ McConnell, Nick Johnson, Aaron Gordon, Brandon Ashley, Kaleb Tarczewski.
•Key Reserves: Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, Jordin Mayes, Angelo Choi.

Arizona was successful last season, and will look to be even better this year. They lose their two leading scorers in Mark Lyons and Solomon Hill, and also key players Kevin Parrom and Grant Jerrett. These players will definitely be replaced well though, by top recruits Aaron Gordon and Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, and Duquesne transfer TJ McConnell. Aaron Gordon is an insanely athletic forward who can take over this team as a freshman. He needs to work on refining his game, especially his ball handling, but he looks like a potential star. McConnell and Hollis-Jefferson are also solid role players who well greatly help the team. Nick Johnson is the one player who will challenge Gordon as the best player for next season. He averaged 11.5 on a very deep team last year, and could average close to 15 per game this season. Brandon Ashley and Kaleb Tarczewski were also very talented players who were overshadowed by Arizona’s depth. If they can improve like they are definitely capable of doing, they will make a very solid front court. Arizona does not have a ton of depth outside of their top six players, but they have other players who could emerge. Arizona is heavily favored to win the Pac-12 this season and will likely win the Pac-12. They are also a solid NCAA Championship threat. I believe their success will depend on how well Aaron Gordon can adjust to the small forward role on a top college team. If he can handle the ball well, Arizona will become an extremely difficult team to guard. Arizona will be in the conversation all season, and will definitely be a contender for a spot in the Final Four.

7. Michigan State
•Last Season’s Record: 27-9
•Postseason: Lost Sweet Sixteen to Duke
•Expected Starting Five: Keith Appling, Gary Harris, Brandon Dawson, Matt Costello, Adrian Payne.
•Key Reserves: Travis Trice, Denzel Valentine, Gavin Schilling.

Michigan State returns most of their Sweet Sixteen team from last year, minus one key piece. Michigan State was a team that succeed based on their ability to rebound and outmuscle teams. The best player on their team at bullying teams was Derrick Nix, who just graduated. Michigan State still returns two players who can rebound and score down low, Adrian Payne and Brandon Dawson, but they will struggle to replace Nix. Without Nix, Michigan State will be a more finesse team centered around rising sophomore guard Gary Harris. Gary Harris is an extremely talented shooter and scorer with the potential to score over 15 points per game. Along with point guard Keith Appling, small forward Brandon Dawson, and power forward Adrian Payne, Michigan State has a very solid core for next season. They will need a fifth starter to emerge though, to play along side the four returning starters. I believe Matt Costello will take that spot, after backing up Payne and Nix last year. Had they won the services for Jabari Parker this winter, they would be the number one team in the country. Without him, they are definitely still contenders. You can never count out a Tom Izzo coached team, and this team has the talent to excel under Tom Izzo.

8. Ohio State
•Last Season’s Record: 29-8
•Postseason: Lost Elite Eight to Wichita State
•Expected Starting Five: Aaron Craft, Lenzelle Smith Jr, Sam Thompson, LaQuinton Ross, Amir Williams.
•Key Reserves: Shannon Scott, Marc Loving, Kameron Williams.

Ohio State returns most of its Elite Eight team from last year, except leading scorer Deshaun Thomas. Even with Thomas, Ohio State was not a very high scoring team. They won a lot of their games coming from their defense, starting with Aaron Craft and Shannon Scott. Aaron Craft is an amazing on ball defender, and is one of my favorite players to watch in college basketball. Aaron Craft is surrounded by three very solid guards in Lenzelle Smith Jr, Sam Thompson, and Shannon Scott. They play great defense but are not great scorers. That led to the majority of the scoring falling on DeShaun Thomas. Although LaQuinton Ross may not be as talented as Thomas, he looks prime to take over Thomas role. He averaged just over eight points per game during the season, but averaged 15 points per game during the NCAA Tournament. He be looked to have similar success scoring the ball this season. Along with Amir Williams, Ross will look to make a very solid front court. Although Ohio State is not a very deep team, they have a lot of talent and should rally around the leadership of Aaron Craft. This team may not have the same talent as many of the other top teams, but they are a very tough defensive team that will fight for wins. They may be a notch behind those first seven teams, but they are not a team to count out.

9. North Carolina
•Last Season’s Record: 25-11
•Postseason: Lost Third Round to Kansas
•Expected Starting Five: Marcus Paige, Leslie McDonald, PJ Hairston, James McAdoo, Brice Johnson.
•Key Reserves: Nate Britt, JP Tokoto, Desmond Hubert, Joel James.

North Carolina returns most of its team after what was actually a pretty disappointing year for them last season. After struggling for most of the year, North Carolina made a late run after switching to a smaller lineup. That lineup consisted of 6’5″ PJ Hairston at power forward and 6’9″ James McAdoo at center. North Carolina will need to find a new lineup to fit them this season. They do not have the guards to play four at a time for significant minutes after the loss of Reggie Bullock and Dexter Strickland. UNC has five players on scholarship that can play center, but none look prime to take the job. Between Desmond Hubert, Brice Johnson, Joel James, Kennedy Meeks and Isaiah Hicks, two bigs will need to emerge to play significant minutes. Like Duke, UNC lacks the center to play with their much more talented other starting four. Duke is rated ahead because they have a much more talented at the first four starting spots and better candidates at center. Although I rated UNC at nine, I believe the gap between eight and nine to be the biggest in the top ten. UNC is a good team, but will likely not be able to defeat the top eight teams. North Carolina will likely be improved from last season, but not good enough to win it all.

10. Syracuse
•Last Season’s Record: 30-10
•Postseason: Lost Final Four to Michigan
•Expected Starting Five: Tyler Ennis, Trevor Cooney, CJ Fair, Jerami Grant, Rakeem Christmas.
•Key Reserves: Baye Moussa Keita, Dajuan Coleman, Michael Gbinije.

Syracuse surprised many people last season by making it to the Final Four. They lost three key players, including their two starting guards. Their starting guards from last season, Brandon Triche and Michael Carter-Williams, were a huge part of their success. They were great ball handlers and helped set up and spread out the scoring to their teammates. What will be missed the most is their tremendous defense in their 2-3 zone. They are 6’4″ and 6’6″ in height, which made it extremely difficult to make entry passes into the high post. In the front court, sharpshooter James Southerland is gone, but returning is CJ Fair. Fair is an extremely talented and athletic scorer and defender. For Syracuse to succeed, Fair will have to be magnificent. Along with Fair, there is many good, but not great forwards. The forwards are good enough for Syracuse to succeed, but the guards may not be. They have significantly regressed from last season. Tyler Ennis and Trevor Cooney will need to play above their ability for Syracuse to be a contender. Like UNC, Syracuse is a good team but not as good as the top eight. UNC and Syracuse both deserve to be in the group of the five teams that missed the top ten, more then the top eight. Syracuse could go on another run, but they do not look prime to win a National Championship.

Just Missed the Top Ten:
Florida
Oklahoma State
Wisconsin
Memphis
Wichita State

As of now, I see eight teams that will seriously contend for the NCAA Championship. Obviously others will emerge during the season, but as of now, the top eight stand above the rest. Many of you may disagree with the rankings of my top eight teams, and I had a difficult time ranking them. I put them in the order I thought was best, but I understand that they are interchangeable.

On Sunday, I will be writing an article on Duke trainer Jose Fonseca. Jose allowed me to interview him for this article and I am really glad he allowed me to interview him. Jose Fonseca is a great guy, and everyone should follow him on twitter at @BestCutManInMBB . Hopefully you enjoy the article about a very key man to Duke basketball success that hardly no one knows.

Starting this Monday, I will be writing an article every day for two straight weeks. I will be taking all 14 teams listed above, not named Duke, and previewing a potential matchup between Duke and that team. Duke will play Kansas, Michigan, North Carolina, Syracuse, and likely Arizona during the season, so many of these will be relevant to the regular season. For the teams they do not play during the season, they are all NCAA tournament contenders who Duke could face on a possible Championship run. I really look forward to posting daily for two weeks and I hope you enjoy the mini series.